Finland’s President Stubb: Ukraine Ceasefire Unlikely Before Spring — Europe Must Show 'Sisu' and Keep Supporting Kyiv

Finland’s president: Europe must hold firm as ceasefire in Ukraine seems unlikely before spring

Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, warned that a ceasefire in Ukraine is unlikely to arrive before spring and urged European allies to maintain robust support for Kyiv despite a corruption scandal that Russia could exploit. Speaking to reporters at a Finnish military base north of Helsinki, Stubb said Europe will need the national quality of “sisu” — endurance, resilience and grit — to get through the winter while Russia continues hybrid attacks and information operations across the continent.

Stubb’s role and background

As a leading European interlocutor between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Stubb said he leverages close ties with Washington to press Ukraine’s case. Finland, a smaller country that nonetheless shares a 1,340-kilometer (830-mile) border with Russia, has particular reason to be attentive to Moscow’s moves. Stubb recalled Finland’s experience in the 1940s — after two wars with the Soviet Union the country ceded territory and embraced neutrality, yet Finnish forces exhibited “sisu” and inflicted heavy losses on a far larger adversary.

Finland abandoned its neutral stance only after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and subsequently joined NATO. Stubb said he uses his personal relationship with President Trump — including a well-publicized friendly golf outing — to explain Finland’s perspective and to advocate for stronger support for Ukraine.

On the battlefield and politics in Kyiv

At the training base, where volunteers practiced evacuating wounded soldiers in freezing conditions, Stubb said he was not optimistic about a ceasefire this year but hoped “to get something going” by March. He identified three core challenges on the path to peace: credible security guarantees for Ukraine, large-scale economic reconstruction, and an agreed approach to territorial claims.

Stubb urged Ukrainian leaders to address allegations of kickbacks and embezzlement promptly, warning that corruption scandals hand propaganda victories to Russia. At the same time he called on European governments to consider boosting both financial and military assistance to Kyiv as Russia makes incremental gains on the battlefield.

Tools to change Moscow’s calculus

Stubb argued that the United States and European countries should step up pressure on the Kremlin to alter Vladimir Putin’s strategic calculations. He suggested practical measures such as using frozen Russian assets held in Europe as collateral to help finance Ukraine’s needs and increasing military pressure on Moscow. He praised recent U.S. sanctions on major Russian energy companies, but said more is needed to give Ukraine the capacity to target Russia’s military and defense infrastructure.

Stubb noted that Ukraine sought long-range Tomahawk missiles from the U.S., a request that U.S. authorities deferred last month; Kyiv currently lacks the platforms and launchers needed to use such weapons. Negotiations over additional firepower are ongoing, he said.

Diplomacy, deterrence and hybrid threats

Reflecting on shifting diplomatic moves — including a planned Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest that was announced and later canceled — Stubb said the cancellation followed discussions between senior U.S. and Russian interlocutors that suggested Moscow was not ready to make concessions. He described Russian diplomacy as uneven and called the canceled meeting another example of a missed opportunity.

Beyond Ukraine’s battlefield, Stubb warned that Russia is waging a hybrid campaign across Europe — from drone incursions and fighter-jet activity to suspected sabotage, arson, vandalism and propaganda — blurring the line between war and peace. His prescription for Europeans: remain calm, resilient and determined. “Be Finnish,” he said — cool, collected and possessing a measure of national sisu.

On leaders and negotiation

Stubb expressed admiration for President Zelenskyy’s leadership under fire and praised his resilience. He also described his useful communications with President Trump and suggested that trusted intermediaries can help interpret intentions between Washington and Kyiv. When it comes to negotiating directly with Putin, Stubb said public, direct talks would likely fall to the U.S. president rather than to the European Union.

“You can’t have illusions about things that you would like to see happening,” Stubb said. “We need security guarantees for Ukraine. We need a ceasefire. How can we get that? It’s been a bit of a grind. I guess you need ‘sisu’ in these types of negotiations as well.”

Stubb declined to provide details about confidential military planning but said that options for guaranteeing Ukraine’s security once negotiations begin are clearer now, with several countries having committed resources.