COP30 in Belém: Chair Signals Possible Major Decision on Fossil Fuels, Finance and Ambition

BELEM, Brazil — What began as a conference focused on implementation has shifted toward bigger political ambitions. Increasing climate impacts, pressure from island states and campaigners, and calls from Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have prompted the COP30 chair to consider a broad, end-of-conference decision that could push countries to strengthen emissions targets, clarify finance for vulnerable nations and put clearer language around phasing out fossil fuels.

Decision time

COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago said Saturday he will consider an overall communiqué — sometimes called a decision or cover text — after delegates signaled they want a stronger, higher-level outcome than originally planned. Many negotiators argue the urgency of climate impacts requires a more ambitious message than a narrow focus on implementation.

“The parties will decide how they want to proceed,” do Lago told reporters. In a more casual exchange he added: “Eh, could be better but not as bad as it could be.”

A central question is whether nations will be asked to revise this year’s national climate plans, many of which experts find inadequate. Under the Paris Agreement, countries are expected to update emissions-cutting pledges every five years; this year, 116 of 193 countries submitted updates. But analyses by the U.N. and Climate Action Tracker indicate those pledges barely reduce projected warming. Even if fully implemented, current promises would still leave the world roughly 0.7°C above the Paris 1.5°C benchmark.

Small island states, led by Palau, have pushed for the conference to confront this ambition gap. That item is not formal on the agenda, nor are detailed plans for implementing last year’s commitment by wealthier countries to mobilize $300 billion annually in climate finance — another contentious issue being pushed into higher-level discussions.

Momentum to phase out fossil fuels

Several delegates and observers say there is renewed momentum to include stronger language on transitioning away from fossil fuels. U.N. General Assembly President Annalena Baerbock described “new momentum” in Belém and urged a strong mitigation target alongside investments in renewable energy. Two years ago in Dubai negotiators agreed on language about a “transition away from fossil fuels,” but subsequent sessions lacked clarity on timing and implementation.

Iskander Erzini Vernoit, executive director of the Moroccan IMAL Initiative for Climate and Development, said the ingredients for a high-ambition package exist — if political leaders choose to assemble them next week.

Getting Indigenous voices heard

Indigenous delegations twice breached and blockaded the venue during the week to demand fuller inclusion in negotiations, despite the conference’s promotion as the “Indigenous Peoples’ COP.” Participants said meaningful access to decision-makers remains limited.

“The COP so far was a testament that unfortunately, for Indigenous peoples to be heard, they actually need to be disruptive,” said Aya Khourshid, a member of A Wisdom Keepers Delegation.

Whaia, a Ngāti Kahungunu Wisdom Keeper, said Indigenous representatives were investing “considerable energy to be present but not being given a platform at the decision-making table,” calling the situation at COP30 imbalanced.

Ministers are due to arrive next week, and many expect the high-level decisions to be made then. Observers say a final decision text could set the global tone — even if it does not carry legally binding enforcement — and would be a politically significant signal about how seriously nations intend to close the ambition gap.

This report is based on coverage by The Associated Press and partners in the 2025 Climate Change Media Partnership.