Ecuador Referendum: Voters Decide Whether to Allow US Military Bases as Drug Violence Surges

Ecuador votes on lifting ban on foreign military bases to confront drug violence

Ecuadorians are voting in a referendum on whether to remove a constitutional ban on foreign military bases as President Daniel Noboa seeks assistance from the United States to confront escalating drug-fuelled violence. Nearly 14 million people cast ballots in a vote that also asks whether to reduce the number of legislators.

The referendum comes as Ecuador faces unprecedented bloodshed. The nation's homicide rate is projected to reach about 50 per 100,000 people this year — the highest in Latin America — and Ecuador's Organized Crime Observatory reported 4,619 murders in the first half of the year.

Opinion polls indicate more than 61% of voters support permitting foreign bases, a change that would likely allow US forces to return to the Manta airbase on the Pacific coast. US personnel operated from Manta between 1999 and 2009 to support anti-narcotics efforts until a 2008 referendum led by then‑President Rafael Correa enshrined a ban on foreign troops in the constitution.

Once regarded as comparatively stable, Ecuador has seen a sharp rise in violence as organised crime groups, including powerful Mexican cartels, exploit porous borders, strategic Pacific ports and institutional weaknesses to expand trafficking routes and influence.

President Noboa, 37, an heir to a major banana-exporting family who took office in November 2023, has pursued a hardline security agenda: deploying soldiers on streets and in prisons, raiding gang strongholds, declaring states of emergency and tightening security at key infrastructure sites. He has likened parts of his approach to that of El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele and has publicised tougher prison measures.

As voting opened, Noboa announced the arrest in Malaga, Spain, of Wilmer Geovanny Chavarria Barre, known as 'Pipo', the alleged leader of the Los Lobos gang. Authorities said Chavarria faked his death, fled to Europe, and was detained after cooperation between Ecuadorian and Spanish security services. Interior Minister John Reimberg linked him to more than 400 killings and accused him of directing criminal networks from behind bars until 2019.

The government also says Los Lobos and Los Choneros — two prominent Ecuadorian crime syndicates — were designated by the US as 'terrorist' organisations in September. Officials allege ties between local gangs and Mexico's Jalisco New Generation Cartel, as well as involvement in illicit mining and trafficking networks.

“We do not need foreign soldiers. We need government,” said former President Rafael Correa, who called the return of foreign forces an insult to Ecuador's public institutions and an assault on sovereignty.

Critics caution that greater foreign military involvement or a constitutional rewrite may not address root causes of the crisis, such as weak institutions, corruption and limited access to healthcare and education. The referendum also asks about forming a constituent assembly — a move opponents fear could enable President Noboa to consolidate power. In August he led a demonstration against Constitutional Court justices after rulings that limited expansive security laws, and some officials publicly denounced the justices as 'enemies of the people'.

Experts trace Ecuador's transformation into a major cocaine transit hub in part to Colombia's 2016 peace agreement, which demobilised FARC guerrillas and created a security vacuum that international trafficking groups filled. Ecuador's geographic position — Pacific ports and proximity to coca-producing Peru and Colombia — combined with institutional weaknesses, has made it central to the global cocaine supply chain.

The referendum's outcome will shape Ecuador's security policy and international partnerships at a moment of deep public concern about violence and state capacity. Observers say any change in policy will need to be paired with stronger institutions and social investments to reduce the underlying drivers of organised crime.