White House Hails ‘Big Progress on Prices’ — Shoppers and Retailers Say Otherwise

White House hails progress, but shoppers aren’t convinced

The White House has celebrated what it calls “big progress on prices,” citing a slowdown in headline inflation to roughly 3% year‑on‑year in 2025 and declines in some petrol and grocery items. Yet many consumers and retailers say the experience at the checkout remains very different: prices have risen more slowly, not returned to pre‑pandemic levels, and household budgets are still under pressure.

How big the shift really is

Across the full basket of goods and services, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moved from about 259 in 2020 to more than 322 by 2025 — an increase of roughly 24–25%. That means the starting point for the cost of living is materially higher than before the pandemic; a lower inflation rate today does not erase those past increases.

Food and groceries: mixed evidence

The administration points to cheaper prices for some staples. National data, however, show a mixed picture: the US Department of Agriculture reports food-at-home prices were about 2.7–3.2% higher in August 2025 than a year earlier, and one CPI analysis finds food-at-home up roughly 30% since January 2020. Some items (eggs, after bird‑flu spikes) have fallen recently, but many grocery prices remain well above pre‑pandemic levels.

Housing and borrowing costs

The White House cites a moderating housing market and a decline in the average 30‑year fixed mortgage rate to about 6.17% at the end of October. That is down from recent peaks above 7% but still far above the sub‑3% rates available in 2021, leaving typical monthly mortgage payments elevated (industry estimates put a standard monthly payment near $2,600 today). Rents are still rising: official CPI shelter costs increased by about 3.6% year‑on‑year.

Wages, sentiment and shopping behaviour

The administration highlights modest real wage gains: Bureau of Labor Statistics data show real average hourly earnings rose about 1.1% between August 2024 and August 2025, with similar annual gains recorded earlier in the year. But those gains largely follow years in which inflation outpaced pay, and median household income in 2024 was only just back to its 2019 level in real terms.

Consumer surveys and retail data underscore continued stress: many shoppers compare prices more often, trade down to cheaper brands or frozen proteins, and hunt promotions. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3 in November, close to its 2022 low, reflecting weak confidence ahead of the 2025 holiday season.

What economists and industry say

Economists caution that a single monthly dip in CPI (June 2024 was the first monthly fall in four years) does little to unwind cumulative price increases. Several institutions warn the US may be settling into a higher inflation regime, with analysis over 2012–2025 indicating an average annual inflation rate closer to 2.7% versus about 1.5% in the prior decade.

“President Trump and his administration do deserve a lot of credit for lowering inflation and holding it steady,” said Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on Sean Spicer’s show. “But that doesn’t bring prices down. Gaslighting people by saying prices have come down isn’t helping.”

Bottom line

Inflation has eased markedly from its 2022 peak, and headline rates in 2025 are far lower than the extremes of recent years. But because prices—especially for groceries, housing and many everyday goods—remain substantially higher than before the pandemic, many households and retailers still feel squeezed. Until wages, rents and grocery bills feel manageable again for a typical family, claims of victory over high prices are unlikely to land at the till.

Originally published by Retail Insight Network, a GlobalData brand. This summary is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial or legal advice.