Fog of War: How Thick Mist Is Reshaping the Battlefield in Ukraine

Fog of War: Weather Shifts Become a Tactical Factor on Ukraine’s Frontlines

Rapidly changing weather across parts of Ukraine has created hazardous conditions that simultaneously constrain operations and open tactical opportunities for both sides. Thick fog and poor visibility are degrading drone surveillance — a key tool for both Ukrainian and Russian forces — while enabling movements and surprise actions that would be more difficult in clear conditions.

According to the unofficial DeepState website, Russian units took advantage of low visibility on Friday to assemble a pontoon bridge across the Vovcha River in southern Ukraine and move at least 10 vehicles into the village of Dachne. Those vehicles reportedly dispersed after crossing the improvised bridge.

“The fog is very thick, and enemy forces continue to accumulate,” said Ukrainian soldier Stanislav Buniatov on Telegram.

In Donetsk region, heavy fog has disrupted drone operations in the contested town of Pokrovsk and injected a degree of unpredictability into local fighting. One Ukrainian soldier described the conditions as turning movement into a kind of backgammon — risky but sometimes advantageous.

“Donbas fog. It’s good to move around in fog because it’s harder for drones to hit you, but it’s also hard for us, and it all turns into some kind of backgammon on this land,” a Ukrainian soldier said.

Analysts and participants report that the mist has helped both sides in different ways. Military analyst David Axe noted that fog allowed a Ukrainian assault regiment to carry out raids in parts of Pokrovsk, "darting across the rail lines that bisect Pokrovsk." Ukrainian drone operator Yevhen Strokan posted on X that firefights have erupted in unexpected places, particularly after fog rolls in.

Analyst Michael Kofman, who recently visited Ukraine, warned on X that “fog, wind and rain significantly degrade drone operations, enabling Russian infiltration through Ukrainian positions.” On a porous, fluid frontline, gaps in overhead surveillance can intensify confusion and create windows for probing advances or limited raids, depending on which side exploits them.

Weather has also been cited in reports of Russian gains in Zaporizhzhia. The Russian defence ministry said Saturday its forces captured the village of Yablukove and two nearby settlements. Kyiv’s military reported intense assaults and heavy artillery strikes in parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions and said there were nearly 40 clashes over the previous day.

“Enemy losses amounted to nearly 300 personnel and 58 vehicles,” the Ukrainian military said in its Saturday report.

Ukrainian units were withdrawn from at least one village in Zaporizhzhia to positions described by Kyiv as more favorable for defense. Earlier in the week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that the situation in parts of the south had significantly worsened and that Russian forces had used numerical superiority to seize three villages.

Russian troops are reportedly around 90 kilometers (55 miles) from the regional capital Zaporizhzhia and within roughly 10 kilometers of Huliaipole, a town Moscow has long sought to capture. Local authorities said another 34 civilians were evacuated from Huliaipole on Friday, with officials noting the danger and the personal risks taken by those assisting the evacuations.

What this means: Weather is emerging as a meaningful variable in the conflict — not only complicating the technological edge provided by drones, but also shaping opportunities for movement, raids, and local advances. Commanders on both sides are adapting tactics to a battlefield where visibility can change the balance between surveillance and surprise.