Winter Forecast: A Cold December, Then a Milder January — What February Might Bring

Winter Outlook — Key Takeaways

A weak La Niña is expected to persist into meteorological winter, but it won’t be the only influence on temperatures. Forecast guidance from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 points to a chilly start in December, a notable warm-up in January across much of the East, and a generally milder pattern for February — with occasional cold outbreaks still possible.

What to expect by region and month

Overall: The coldest conditions this season are likely to concentrate over the Northwest, the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains — from Washington state into North Dakota — with cooler-than-average temperatures extending from Northern California into the Upper Midwest. Much of the South (from the Desert Southwest to Florida) and large parts of the Northeast are forecast to be warmer than average.

December: December could open significantly colder than average from the Pacific Northwest into the Ohio Valley. Forecasters say two factors — the lingering La Niña pattern and a weakening polar vortex high in the stratosphere — could combine to nudge the pattern colder. The Upper Midwest and Northern Plains are most at risk for bitter cold when southward dips in the jet stream usher Arctic air into the continental U.S. By contrast, the Southwest and Gulf Coast are likely to remain milder than average through the month.

January: A pronounced warm-up is expected across much of the eastern United States relative to climatological norms. The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast are forecast to see the largest departures toward above-average temperatures — in some areas shifting from cooler-than-normal to noticeably warmer-than-normal. The Northwest and Northern Rockies are forecast to remain cooler than average, though the colder pocket should shrink.

February: As meteorological winter closes, the South and East are generally expected to be milder-than-average while below-average temperatures retreat into the Northwest. That said, periodic cold plunges remain possible when persistent cold reservoirs in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada leak southward into the Plains.

Precipitation: The central and eastern Gulf Coast through Florida are likely to be drier than average, which aligns with a typical La Niña winter signal. Other regions will experience variable precipitation depending on the evolution of storm tracks and transient weather systems.

"La Niña and stratospheric changes are influencing the start of winter, but they don’t have the final say — month-to-month variability is likely," said Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

Uncertainty and outlook: Seasonal forecasts show the most probable patterns, but they describe averages, not every day. Short-term cold snaps or warm surges can and will occur. Watch forecasts from local meteorologists and national guidance for details on timing and intensity of individual events.

Sources and author: Outlook issued by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2. Article prepared by Sara Tonks, content meteorologist at Weather.com. Sara holds a B.S. and M.S. in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences from Georgia Tech and an M.S. in Marine Science from Unity College.