Study overview: Researchers find that extreme floods from 1980–2015 reduced global rice yields by an average of 4.3% per year, equal to up to 18 million tonnes lost. Losses were larger in some areas — roughly 7% in parts of Southeast Asia and up to 15% in zones of China and India — and accelerated after 2000 as climate-linked flooding increased. The team combined global flood models with satellite inundation records to link specific flood events to yield declines. Experts warn that continued losses could raise rice prices, threaten food security, and require flood‑resilient varieties and other adaptations, which face cultural and cost barriers.
Climate-Linked Floods Have Slashed Global Rice Yields — Up to 18 Million Tonnes Lost (1980–2015)
Study overview: Researchers find that extreme floods from 1980–2015 reduced global rice yields by an average of 4.3% per year, equal to up to 18 million tonnes lost. Losses were larger in some areas — roughly 7% in parts of Southeast Asia and up to 15% in zones of China and India — and accelerated after 2000 as climate-linked flooding increased. The team combined global flood models with satellite inundation records to link specific flood events to yield declines. Experts warn that continued losses could raise rice prices, threaten food security, and require flood‑resilient varieties and other adaptations, which face cultural and cost barriers.
07:53 AM, 11/15/2025Environment
Extreme flooding cut global rice yields, study finds
New research published in Science Advances shows that destructive floods across Asia and neighbouring regions between 1980 and 2015 reduced rice yields worldwide by an average of 4.3% per year, equal to as much as 18 million tonnes of lost production.
Lead author Zhi Li, an assistant professor of civil, environmental and architectural engineering at the University of Colorado Boulder, described the findings as "very shocking," warning that the scale of losses could threaten local food security in the most affected regions.
How the study was done
The research team combined a global flood model with satellite observations of historical inundation to link individual flood events to the percentage of rice-yield loss they caused. This approach allowed the authors to quantify how specific "rice‑killing" flood events translated into production declines across different regions.
Regional impacts and trends
While the 4.3% figure is the global average, some areas fared far worse: parts of Southeast Asia experienced average declines near 7%, and certain rice-intensive zones — including China’s east coast and parts of India — saw annual losses up to about 15%. The paper reports that these losses accelerated after 2000, coinciding with a rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall and flooding linked to human-driven climate change.
Economic and social implications
Rice is the primary staple for more than half the world’s population and is heavily consumed in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South America. Economists warn that significant and persistent production shocks can destabilize global rice markets: as supply contracts, prices tend to rise, which can reduce affordability and harm food security for vulnerable households.
"Any large shock of any type can have implications for the food system," said Anna Josephson, an associate professor of agriculture and applied economics at the University of Arizona. "If price goes up, people can't afford food."
Short-term responses to price rises include paying higher prices or substituting other foods; both options create broader economic ripple effects, from reduced farm incomes to lower local demand and potential job losses in related sectors.
Possible responses and limits
The authors suggest developing flood‑tolerant rice varieties and other adaptive strategies. But adaptation faces challenges: culturally preferred local rice varieties may be hard to replace, and improved or genetically engineered seeds can be costlier, which could keep consumer prices elevated even if yields recover.
Outlook
The study covers 1980–2015; the authors and independent experts note that yield losses have likely continued or accelerated since 2015 as global temperatures rise and extreme rainfall events become more frequent. In 2023 the World Meteorological Organization reported that over 80% of hydrometeorological hazards in Asia were floods and storms, underscoring the ongoing risk.
Key takeaway: Climate-amplified flooding has already reduced rice production substantially in many regions, threatening food security and market stability unless adaptive measures are scaled up and made accessible to affected farming communities.