Explosions in Two Capitals Raise Regional Tensions
Explosions in Islamabad and New Delhi less than 24 hours apart have renewed fears that episodic violence could spiral into a broader confrontation between the nuclear-armed rivals.
Islamabad: On Tuesday afternoon a suicide bomber detonated beside a police vehicle outside a courthouse in Islamabad, killing at least 12 people and wounding at least 27, police said. Many victims were passersby or people attending court appointments. A leader of Jamaat‑ul‑Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Tehrik‑e‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility, the Associated Press reported, although another commander from the same faction denied involvement and a TTP spokesperson disavowed responsibility.
New Delhi: Less than 24 hours earlier, a car explosion near the historic Red Fort in New Delhi killed at least 10 people and injured more than 30. Indian authorities said the incident is under investigation; the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has taken charge and authorities invoked the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). Media reports and social media have circulated unverified claims linking the driver to a Kashmiri resident and alleged Pakistan-based militants, while investigators continue to probe the origins and motive of the blast.
Official reactions and mutual accusations
Pakistani leaders moved quickly to blame external actors. Islamabad’s Prime Minister’s Office described the Islamabad attack as one of the “worst examples of Indian state‑sponsored terrorism in the region,” and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi alleged Indian backing and Afghan proxies. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif warned the attack was a nationwide threat and framed it as part of a broader conflict.
India dismissed the allegations as "baseless and unfounded," with a Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson calling them a predictable tactic to divert attention from Pakistan’s domestic politics.
Analysts’ warnings
Amit Ranjan, research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (National University of Singapore), told TIME he sees limited military retaliation as a possible—but not inevitable—response if investigators find links to Pakistan, noting that external diplomatic and economic pressures make an all‑out war unlikely. Security analyst Sahar Khan warned that repeated attacks and reciprocal accusations could push both countries further up an escalation ladder.
Context: recent regional shifts and past clashes
The incidents come amid shifting alliances and recent clashes across the region. India has stepped up engagement with Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities, drawing criticism and concern in Islamabad, which historically fears strategic encirclement. Pakistan has accused Afghanistan of sheltering TTP militants and has in turn accused India of supporting proxies—charges New Delhi and Kabul deny.
Earlier this year, violence around Kashmir escalated: a bombing in Pahalgam on April 22 killed 26 civilians and sparked India’s cross‑border response, Operation Sindoor, in May. The four‑day exchange of strikes and border skirmishes was the deadliest between the neighbors in decades. A tenuous cease‑fire announced in May has held unevenly, and diplomatic efforts to stabilize ties remain fragile.
Outlook
Investigations in both capitals are ongoing. Analysts caution that domestic political pressures, rising nationalist sentiment and a history of mutual distrust increase the risk that isolated attacks could trigger wider reprisals. For now, leaders on both sides are trading accusations while security services pursue forensic and intelligence leads.
If new evidence emerges tying either attack to cross‑border actors, even limited retaliatory steps could risk escalation—underscoring the stakes of careful, evidence‑based diplomacy in the days ahead.
Photo credit: Sanjeev Verma—Hindustan Times/Getty Images (shows Fire Brigade personnel dousing a fire near Red Fort Metro Station Gate No. 1, New Delhi)
