The OIV expects global wine production to rise modestly to about 232 million hectolitres in 2025, a ~3% increase after 2024's record low since 1961. Production will remain below recent averages as climate variability and changing consumption patterns continue to weigh on output. Regional results vary: France and Spain had very weak harvests, Italy improved, the US saw only a partial rebound, and southern producers partly recovered while Chile suffered a sharp decline. OIV says a softer demand is helping rebalance supply and support export prices, though local hardships persist.
Global Wine Production to Rebound Modestly in 2025 — Climate and Changing Habits Keep Output Below Averages
The OIV expects global wine production to rise modestly to about 232 million hectolitres in 2025, a ~3% increase after 2024's record low since 1961. Production will remain below recent averages as climate variability and changing consumption patterns continue to weigh on output. Regional results vary: France and Spain had very weak harvests, Italy improved, the US saw only a partial rebound, and southern producers partly recovered while Chile suffered a sharp decline. OIV says a softer demand is helping rebalance supply and support export prices, though local hardships persist.
12:48 PM, 11/12/2025Economy
Global wine output forecast to recover slightly in 2025
The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) forecasts a modest recovery for world wine production in 2025 after a sharp decline in 2024. Production is projected at about 232 million hectolitres, roughly a 3% increase on 2024 — which was the industry's lowest annual output since 1961.
The OIV compiles data from 29 countries that together represent approximately 85% of global wine production.
Why output will remain below recent averages
Despite the projected increase, global production is expected to remain below recent long-term averages as both climate variability and shifting consumer habits continue to weigh on supply and demand. The OIV describes the situation as "a period of persistently reduced global supply, impacted by climatic challenges and evolving consumption models."
Regional picture
- European Union: Still accounts for around 60% of world wine output and faces high climatic variability. France and Spain recorded very low harvests in recent seasons, while Italy recovered toward near-normal levels. Some central and southeast European producers improved relative to recent averages.
- United States: Only a partial rebound from the low 2024 figures.
- Southern Hemisphere: A moderate recovery was recorded overall, driven by gains in South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and Brazil. These improvements were offset by a sharp decline in Chile, where heatwaves, uneven rainfall and water shortages hit production hard.
"We should never forget that there are individuals and regions who are affected by these climate impacts," OIV Director General John Barker said, underlining the local human and economic toll. "But, when we look at the overall global supply and demand situation, we are seeing a more balanced market which is supporting stronger export pricing."
OIV data also show that global wine consumption has been declining for several years, reaching its lowest level in more than six decades in 2024. That softer demand is helping rebalance supply and is reflected in firmer export prices for some producers.
Outlook: The 2025 forecast points to a cautious recovery but confirms that climate pressures and changing drinking habits will continue to shape the wine sector in the years ahead.