Brazil Seeks Last‑Minute Compromise to Defuse COP30 Agenda Fights

Belem, Brazil — As host of COP30, Brazil is racing to broker a compromise after a string of contentious proposals threatened to overshadow the United Nations climate summit. Delegates narrowly avoided an open confrontation at the conference's opening when Brazil agreed to hear several disputed demands informally and pursue an acceptable path forward.

After two days of closed consultations in Belem, Brazil is expected to announce on Wednesday whether it has found a workable middle ground. Although the rotating COP presidency has no formal decision-making power, it plays a pivotal role in shaping compromises and steering negotiations toward consensus.

Any formal outcome at the Conference of the Parties must be agreed by consensus among the 197 countries and the European Union that are parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, making compromise essential but often difficult.

Four Flashpoints

Delegates have focused on four divisive issues: unilateral trade measures, transparency and reporting rules, climate finance commitments, and ambitious measures to cut greenhouse-gas emissions.

The most politically charged topics are climate finance and fossil fuels. Wealthier countries are reluctant to reopen painful debates over financial obligations to poorer nations, while major oil-producing states resist any explicit focus on the role of fossil fuels in driving global warming.

“A handful of delegations remain unconvinced, but the talks have been constructive,” said one close observer of the consultations, reflecting widespread hopes that a negotiated text can be found.

Key Disputes Explained

Recognition of 1.5°C breach: The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is pushing for an explicit acknowledgment that countries have collectively failed to keep warming within the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal. Scientists warn that a temporary overshoot is now likely because global emissions have not fallen fast enough, and many EU and Latin American delegations back AOSIS’s call.

Climate finance: Developing countries are pressing wealthier nations for clearer and stronger commitments to finance climate adaptation and loss-and-damage, a perennial flashpoint that risks reopening old rifts.

Trade measures: China and India strongly oppose unilateral measures such as the European Union’s carbon border adjustment mechanism, which they view as protectionist and punitive.

Transparency: The European Union is pushing for tighter rules on how countries report emissions and climate actions — a move that some delegations fear could impose new compliance burdens on developing states.

Observers say Brazil may offer a ‘cover decision’ — an overarching text presented at the COP’s close that creates breathing space for a negotiated outcome — or adopt an innovative format that treats each proposal on its own terms.

With strong diplomatic stakes and deep geopolitical differences on display, negotiators in Belem face a delicate task: forging unity without sidelining the most vulnerable countries or reopening old disputes that have previously stalled COP outcomes.