Iraq Votes in Rare Moment of Calm as Tehran and Washington Closely Monitor the Outcome

Iraqis began casting ballots on Tuesday in a parliamentary election held at a delicate moment for both the country and the wider region. The vote — closely watched by Iran and the United States — comes during an uncommon stretch of relative stability as Iraq attempts to move beyond decades of dictatorship and conflict.

Despite the calmer security environment, many Iraqis continue to struggle with failing public services, weakened infrastructure and endemic corruption. That frustration has fuelled widespread scepticism about whether elections can deliver meaningful change, with many citizens viewing the ballot as a mechanism that often preserves the influence of political elites and outside powers.

Polling stations opened at 07:00 local time (04:00 GMT) and are scheduled to close at 18:00 (15:00 GMT), with preliminary results expected within 24 hours. Minutes after polls opened, several senior politicians cast their votes at the luxury al-Rasheed hotel in Baghdad.

More than 7,740 candidates — nearly one-third of them women — are contesting 329 parliamentary seats. Only 75 candidates are running as independents under an electoral law critics say advantages larger parties. Of more than 21 million eligible voters, authorities fear turnout could fall below the 41% recorded in 2021, the lowest participation rate since nationwide voting began.

"Every four years, the same thing happens. We don't see young faces or new energies capable of making a change," said university student Al-Hassan Yassin.

Sectarian politics and power-sharing

Since the 2003 overthrow of Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein, Iraq's Shiite majority — long repressed under his rule — has been politically dominant, with many major Shiite parties maintaining ties to neighbouring Iran. Under the post-2003 power-sharing convention, the prime minister is typically a Shiite, the parliament speaker a Sunni and the largely ceremonial presidency a Kurd.

Few fresh faces have emerged at the top of Iraqi politics. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who campaigned on stability and reconstruction and seeks a second term, is widely expected to secure a large share of seats. He first became prime minister in 2022 with the backing of the Coordination Framework, an alliance of Shiite parties with close links to Iran.

However, winning the largest single bloc does not automatically guarantee the premiership: the next prime minister will be chosen by whichever post-election coalition can build the largest parliamentary alliance. Analysts expect Shiite groups that run separately to try to reunite after the vote to agree on a candidate.

Where's Sadr?

The election is notable for the absence of influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, who has urged his followers to boycott what he calls a "flawed election." In 2021 Sadr led the largest parliamentary bloc but later withdrew his members after disputes with rival Shiite factions; the rift escalated into deadly clashes in Baghdad.

Sunni parties are contesting the vote separately, with former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbussi expected to perform strongly. In the autonomous Kurdistan region, the rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan remains intense.

Regional dynamics: Tehran, Washington and Iraqi sovereignty

Iraq has long been a stage for regional competition and seeks to balance relations between Iran and the United States. Tehran aims to preserve its influence in Iraq even as its broader regional position faces pressure, while Washington maintains a military presence and political leverage in Baghdad.

Pro-Iran armed factions in Iraq — groups the US lists as terrorist organisations — scaled back attacks on American forces early last year after a mix of internal debate and US pressure tied to the Gaza war. Washington has repeatedly called for Iraq to disarm or demobilise such groups. The US has recently named Mark Savaya as its special envoy to Iraq; he has urged freeing the country from what he described as "malign" foreign interference.

As results emerge, the contest will not only determine parliamentary representation but also test Iraq's ability to navigate deep domestic grievances and complex regional pressures while delivering tangible improvement to citizens' daily lives.