Iraq Parliamentary Elections — Key Facts and What to Watch

Iraq Parliamentary Elections — Key Facts and What to Watch

On Tuesday, voters across Iraq will elect a new parliament in a contest widely seen as a test of public confidence in the political system’s ability to deliver security and basic services. Many Iraqis judge the state primarily on those two issues, which have been persistent since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein and fragmented the country’s social fabric.

Quick facts

• Seats: 329 members of parliament will be elected.
• Women’s quota: At least 25% of seats (83 seats) are reserved for women.
• Candidates: 7,744 people are running, most affiliated with established parties and blocs.
• Voting times: Polls open at 07:00 local time (04:00 GMT) and close at 18:00 (15:00 GMT). Early voting was held for security personnel and around 26,000 displaced people.
• Provinces: Voting is held in 18 of 19 provinces; the newly created Halabja province is being administered with Sulaimaniya for this election.
• Registration: Some 21.4 million people registered to vote out of roughly 32 million eligible — down from about 24 million four years ago.

Background and electoral system

The contest takes place under the post-2003 muhasasa (quota) arrangement, a power-sharing practice intended to allocate high offices among Iraq’s religious and ethnic communities. Under this convention, the speaker of parliament is typically a Sunni, the prime minister a Shia and the president a Kurd. Critics say muhasasa entrenches sectarian politics and enables corruption; supporters argue it preserves a fragile balance among Iraq’s communities.

Main political actors

On the Shia side, the scene is competitive: former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki leads a powerful bloc, while incumbent Mohammed Shia al-Sudani heads a separate coalition and is seeking reappointment. Both operate within the Shia Coordination Framework (SCF), an alliance formed in 2021 whose internal divisions could determine who leads the next government.

The main Sunni force is the Taqaddum (Progress) Party, led by parliamentary speaker Mohamed al-Halbousi, with strong support in Sunni-majority provinces in the west and north. In the Kurdistan Region the principal contenders are the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which seeks a larger share of oil revenues, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which favors closer ties with Baghdad.

Influential Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has urged his supporters to boycott the election, rejecting the muhasasa system and calling instead for governments formed by blocs that win a parliamentary majority. A major Sadrist boycott could undermine the perceived legitimacy of the incoming government.

Key issues to watch

• Voter turnout: Registration trends and public apathy — especially among young Iraqis — suggest turnout could fall below the record low of 41% in 2021. Low participation would raise questions about the government’s mandate.
• PMF integration: The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF or Hashd al-Shaabi), a coalition of mostly Shia paramilitary groups that helped defeat ISIL, remain powerful politically and economically. Al-Sudani has pledged to integrate PMF units into state structures, a complex and sensitive process.
• Shia leadership contest: Rivalry inside the SCF, especially the ambitions of al-Maliki, could shape whether the next prime minister is an incumbent, a returnee, or a compromise figure.
• Kurdish demands: Competition over oil revenue sharing and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s budgetary needs will be central to KDP–PUK dynamics.

Why it matters

These elections will influence Iraq’s domestic stability, its approach to armed groups and the distribution of resources — especially oil revenues — across regions. The outcome will also affect Iraq’s foreign relations, including ties with the United States and neighbouring Iran, both of which have strong interests in the country’s political future.

What happens at the ballot box will reverberate across Iraqi society: either reinforcing a fragile status quo or creating pressure for meaningful political change.