UN Expert: Iran's 'Water Bankruptcy' Threatens Regime Stability, Energy and Nuclear Programs

UN expert warns Iran’s worsening drought could weaken state institutions and critical infrastructure

Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, warned that Iran is facing its worst drought in decades and is entering what he calls a state of "water bankruptcy." Speaking to Fox News Digital, Madani said the crisis is undermining the country’s resilience and its ability to sustain prolonged political or military confrontation.

Key indicators: Of the five major dams that supply Tehran, one has already run dry and another is operating at below 8% capacity, according to The Associated Press. In response, Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi announced planned evening cuts to water supplies to allow reservoir refilling and urged residents to reduce consumption by about 20% to avoid formal rationing.

"This water bankruptcy weakens Iran on the world stage," Madani said. "If there is no water, there is less resilience and less capacity to resist."

Madani emphasized that the emergency was foreseeable. "The water bankruptcy situation was not created overnight," he said. "The house was already on fire, and people like myself had warned the government for years that this situation would emerge." He attributed the crisis to a combination of prolonged drought, decades of water mismanagement and climate change.

President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly cautioned that, without significant rainfall before winter, parts of Tehran could face partial evacuation. Madani, however, said an immediate mass evacuation is unlikely because residents have jobs, schools and social ties that complicate abrupt displacement.

Beyond household shortages, Madani warned of wider consequences: failing water and power systems could spark unrest and degrade national security. "When people are out of water and electricity, you face domestic and national security problems," he said, adding that such systemic failures could weaken the government's capacity and legitimacy.

Madani also linked the shortages to potential impacts on Iran’s energy and nuclear infrastructure. Reduced rainfall lowers hydropower generation, increasing the risk of simultaneous water and power outages. He noted reporting from The New York Times suggesting continued enrichment activity at a fortified site referred to as "Pickaxe Mountain," and argued that persistent electricity and water shortfalls would hamper any nuclear program's operations.

Sanctions and long-standing economic pressures compound the challenge. "They face the issue of sanctions," Madani said, noting that reintroduced U.S. and Security Council penalties limit economic options and complicate responses to food and water insecurity.

Despite the severity of the situation, Madani said both officials and citizens are hoping for rainfall. "The government hopes for rain, but people are already afraid," he observed, warning that prolonged "resistance mode"—political isolation and continued resource strain—will deepen environmental, economic and social pressures.

Sources: Fox News Digital; The Associated Press; The New York Times.