Why Recent Coups Keep Surfacing in Africa: Drivers, Patterns and What Comes Next

It has become an all too familiar scene in parts of Africa: soldiers appear on state television to announce they have seized power, while governments and citizens wait to learn whether the attempt will succeed or be stopped. In one recent case, troops surfaced on state TV in Benin to claim control before the president said the coup had been foiled. A fortnight earlier, soldiers in Guinea-Bissau successfully seized power after a hotly contested presidential vote.

Growing Grievances and Weakened Institutions

Analysts point to widening socioeconomic discontent, frayed institutions and growing frustration with civilian leadership — particularly over security — as major drivers behind the recent wave of coups and coup attempts.

In many West African countries, where militaries remain deeply involved in daily politics, crises such as insurgencies and sustained socioeconomic grievances often push soldiers to step in when they believe civilian leaders are failing to respond effectively.

Those pressures are evident across the continent. Since 2020, at least nine countries have seen successful coups or serious coup attempts, including episodes in Benin, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Gabon, Chad, Guinea, Sudan, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Several of these states have been battered by extremist violence, chronic poverty and weak public services, all of which contribute to public frustration and provide a justification, real or claimed, for military intervention.

Notable Recent Episodes

- Madagascar: Military leaders took power following youth-led protests that demanded President Andry Rajoelina's resignation; Rajoelina later left the country as parliament moved to impeach him.

- Gabon: Soldiers ousted longtime President Ali Bongo after a disputed election; the coup leader later stood in a subsequent presidential vote.

- Chad: After the death of President Idriss Deby in 2021, General Mahamat Idriss Deby consolidated power, extending his family's influence.

- Guinea and Others: Soldiers led by Mamady Doumbouya removed President Alpha Condé in 2021 after he changed the constitution to seek a third term. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have also seen coups amid worsening security in the Sahel.

Why Former French Colonies Feature Prominently

Many observers note that most recent coups have occurred in countries that were once French colonies. Experts cite several overlapping factors: political systems with strong presidential powers, enduring economic ties to France, weak governance, and the inability to address jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel.

Add to this weak governance marked by corruption and the inability to address jihadist threats in the Sahel, and you have fertile ground for militaries positioning themselves as 'saviors.'

By contrast, some analysts argue that Anglophone post-colonial institutions, shaped by a more decentralized British model, have often fostered clearer separations of power and, in some cases, more stable transitions. That institutional difference can shape how military, executive and judicial branches interact and whether they overlap in ways that invite intervention.

Implications and Outlook

Coups and coup attempts weaken democratic institutions, disrupt economies and deepen international isolation. Analysts warn that unless socioeconomic grievances are addressed, security challenges contained and governance strengthened, the region could continue to see military interventions. International partners, regional bodies and domestic actors face a complex task: restoring stability while supporting accountable, civilian-led governance.