Wealthy New Yorkers Aren't Fleeing After Mamdani Win — Luxury Market Holds Steady

Predictions Of A Mass Exodus Haven't Materialized

Warnings that Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory would trigger a rush of wealthy New Yorkers relocating to lower-tax states have not come true — at least not yet. In the run-up to the election, the New York Post and other outlets ran alarmist coverage suggesting that modest proposed tax increases on the city’s richest residents would prompt a large-scale departure to places like Florida and Texas.

Market Signals Point To Commitment, Not Flight

One month after Mamdani’s historic win, available market data suggests the opposite: high-end buyers and sellers are still active in Manhattan. Fortune reported that signed contracts for Manhattan homes priced above $4 million increased in November compared with October, with the most expensive properties outperforming the broader market. Meanwhile, luxury inventory fell about 16% year‑on‑year in October, a sign that fewer high-end homes are sitting unsold and that buyers remain committed to staying in the city.

“If we just look at migration rates of high-income people, the rates are very low. Rich people are not the folks who are, you know, pulling up camp and moving to a different part of the country. That’s just not who’s doing that,”

Experts point to practical ties that make relocating difficult for high earners: marriage, children, immovable assets such as homes, and business or cultural networks that generate professional opportunities. These attachments reduce the appeal of uprooting in response to relatively modest tax increases.

Evidence From Other States And Countries

Research on comparable tax changes in U.S. states such as New Jersey, California, Connecticut and Massachusetts finds little evidence that those policies led to mass departures of wealthy residents. Quentin Parrinello, policy director at the EU Tax Observatory, notes that studies in Scandinavia and France likewise show mobility among high-net-worth individuals is possible but limited.

“Because they have cultural, family or economic ties to the area...the complexities of moving away from these opportunities ultimately appear bigger than what you will pay in tax — particularly when the proposed tax rise is somewhat modest,”

Analysts say a small number of marginal residents might choose to leave if taxes rise, but the bulk of high-income earners are expected to remain and continue contributing tax revenues. In short, current indicators suggest no immediate large-scale exodus of the wealthy from New York City following Mamdani’s victory, though long-term behavior will depend on the specifics of any enacted tax changes and broader economic conditions.