Axial Seamount Now Expected To Erupt Mid–Late 2026; OSU Launches New Forecasting Experiment

Axial Seamount Forecast Moved to Mid–Late 2026

Axial Seamount, an active submarine volcano on the Juan de Fuca Ridge off the Oregon coast, is now forecast to erupt in mid-to-late 2026 rather than in 2025, researchers say. The seamount sits nearly a mile (about 1.6 km) below the ocean surface and roughly 300 miles west of Astoria.

What Scientists Are Seeing

Geologic records show Axial Seamount has erupted about 50 times over the last 800 years, with recent eruptions in 1998, 2011 and 2015. Oregon State University (OSU) researchers monitoring the site observed inflation of the volcano's magma system during 2025, which initially suggested an imminent eruption. However, continuing observations reveal that although inflation is steady and approaching the 2015 pre-eruption threshold, the rate of seismicity remains relatively low.

“At the current rate of inflation, we won't get to that higher inflation threshold until mid-to-late 2026,” OSU volcanologist Bill Chadwick and UNC scientist Scott Nooner wrote in an Oct. 27 blog post.

New Experiment To Improve Forecasting

On Nov. 12, OSU announced a new experiment that will combine continuous observations from the Regional Cabled Array with a physics-based model of the volcano's behavior. The Regional Cabled Array is an undersea observatory built with roughly 660 miles of cable and more than 140 instruments that provide real-time seismic, deformation and other environmental data. Researchers hope this approach will refine eruption timing forecasts and improve understanding of submarine volcanic processes.

Risk To People And The Surface

Even if Axial Seamount erupts in 2026, scientists emphasize there is no expected danger to people onshore. The volcano's depth and distance offshore make it unlikely any small earthquakes associated with an eruption would be felt on land. Lava flows would reshape the seafloor but are not expected to reach the ocean surface or create direct hazards to coastal communities.

Why This Matters

Axial Seamount presents a rare opportunity to test real-time monitoring paired with physics-based modeling at a well-instrumented submarine volcano. Success could improve eruption forecasts for submarine and terrestrial volcanoes worldwide and advance our understanding of how inflation and seismicity combine to signal imminent eruptions.

Originally published in the Salem Statesman Journal. Reported by Ginnie Sandoval.