Venezuela’s Military: A ‘Fortress Built on Sand’ — Hollow Power, Real Risks for Any U.S. Operation

Assessment: Formidable On Paper, Fragile In Practice

As tensions rise between Washington and the Nicolás Maduro government, international security analysts tell Fox News Digital that Venezuela’s armed forces often look imposing on paper but have been hollowed out by years of corruption, neglect and strict political control. Experts emphasize that while Caracas could not stop a determined U.S. strike, any broader operation would be far more complex and risk-prone than simple descriptions suggest.

Leadership, Morale and Capacity Concerns

Isaias Medina, an international lawyer and former Venezuelan diplomat who testified against his government at the International Criminal Court, described the country as a "criminalized state" where narcotrafficking networks have significant influence. He warned that Venezuela resembles

“a fortress built on sand wrapped around a criminal regime.”

Medina stressed caution because of Venezuela’s dense civilian population — many of whom have themselves suffered under the regime — and argued any operation should favor restraint and longer operational timelines to avoid targets that cannot be struck cleanly.

What Threats Matter Most

Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation, told Fox News Digital that Venezuela’s most relevant threats to outside military operations are its air and naval systems. He argued those systems could be neutralized rapidly in a focused campaign.

“You have to break this up. There’s an air-naval part, which is most likely what could impact our strike operations,” Montgomery said, noting fighter jets, a limited number of naval vessels and Russian-made surface-to-air missile systems as primary concerns.

Montgomery said an initial phase aimed at disrupting cocaine production or denying sanctuary would likely begin with simultaneous strikes on airfields, aircraft and air-defense weapon systems to prevent effective retaliation. He estimated the air and maritime threat could be degraded within the first day or two of a concentrated campaign.

Why a Ground Campaign Would Be Very Different

While air and naval threats may be countered quickly, experts warn a full-scale ground operation would be far more difficult. Montgomery described Venezuela’s professional military as relatively small — roughly 65,000–70,000 personnel — and noted many soldiers likely did not join to wage a large-scale war. The regime also maintains a large militia whose willingness to fight would depend heavily on personal loyalty to Maduro.

Geography would complicate matters: Venezuela is roughly twice the size of California and home to an estimated 35–40 million people. Analysts say that scenario could easily devolve into a prolonged counterinsurgency — a politically and militarily hazardous prospect. As Montgomery put it bluntly: “Today, I would not do this. I do not recommend it.”

Hardware, Allies, and Strategic Complications

Despite degradation, Venezuela retains a sizable, uneven inventory of military hardware that could complicate early phases of any operation. Reported assets include about 92 T-72B tanks, 123 BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, Russian Msta-S artillery pieces, Smerch and Grad rocket systems, and an estimated 6–10 flyable Su-30MK2 fighter jets. Air defenses reportedly include S-300VM, Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M systems.

U.S. officials also remain concerned about Caracas’s deepening ties with Iran, Russia and China, relationships that add diplomatic and operational complexity to Washington’s calculations.

Political Context

Jorge Jraissati, president of the Economic Inclusion Group, cited opinion figures he says indicate only about 20% of Venezuelans approve of the Maduro regime, arguing that for more than a decade there has been little respect for the popular will while Caracas has aligned with regimes described as anti-Western.

Key Takeaways

• The Venezuelan military appears stronger on paper than it is in practice due to corruption, decay and political control.
• An initial U.S. air-and-maritime campaign could likely neutralize key threats quickly, according to some analysts.
• A ground invasion would carry major risks: large geography, dense population and potential for prolonged counterinsurgency.
• Venezuela retains notable hardware and air-defense systems that could complicate early operations.
• External ties to Iran, Russia and China add geopolitical complications for any U.S. action.