How Nicolás Maduro Defied Predictions — And What Venezuela Has Lost

How Nicolás Maduro Survived Against the Odds

Nicolás Maduro, often ridiculed for verbal gaffes and eccentric public moments, has nonetheless outlasted repeated predictions of his downfall since succeeding Hugo Chávez in 2013. Backed by close ties to Cuba and a mix of domestic institutions and informal actors, Maduro consolidated power by distributing positions and resources across the military, political elites and armed groups.

From Union Organizer to Chávez’s Successor

The son of a political activist, Maduro began as a union leader and rose through chavista ranks, serving as foreign minister and vice president. In December 2012, as Chávez’s health deteriorated, Chávez publicly endorsed Maduro as his chosen successor. That endorsement, together with Maduro’s loyalty and his cultivation of key alliances, helped him secure the presidency in a narrow April 2013 victory over Henrique Capriles by about 1.59 percentage points.

A Power-Sharing Model That Ensured Survival

Maduro’s survival strategy combined domestic patronage and international alliances. He strengthened ties with Cuba, recruited the armed forces into the state’s economic and political architecture, and shared power with prominent chavista figures. Paramilitary groups and armed collectives known as "colectivos" also became part of a broader security and enforcement network the regime relied upon during episodes of unrest.

Contested Elections and International Scrutiny

Since 2013 Venezuelan elections and political maneuvers have repeatedly drawn criticism from opposition groups, independent observers and some allied governments. Major votes — including the 2017 constitutional process, the 2018 and 2024 presidential contests, and the 2020 legislative elections — were contested. A 2020 UN investigative mission reported reasonable grounds to believe that state authorities and security forces committed widespread and systematic human rights violations since 2014, and the International Criminal Court and other UN bodies continue to examine allegations.

"If some unforeseen circumstance should arise that prevents me from continuing as president... you should choose Nicolás Maduro."

— Hugo Chávez, December 2012

Economic Collapse and Mass Emigration

Venezuela’s economy contracted sharply during Maduro’s tenure. According to IMF estimates cited in reporting, the economy in 2024 is a fraction of its 2013 size (commonly described as about 28% of 2013 levels), while oil export revenues have fallen substantially since 2013. Contributing factors include underinvestment in the state oil company PDVSA, mismanagement, internal disputes and the impact of international sanctions. The humanitarian and economic crisis drove nearly eight million Venezuelans to live abroad, creating one of the world’s largest displacement crises.

International Pressure and the U.S. Response

Multiple U.S. administrations applied a mix of diplomatic measures, sanctions, arrest warrants and incentives to pressure Maduro’s government. Sanctions targeting PDVSA were expanded in 2019; earlier measures targeted senior officials. Diplomatic engagement, covert talks and agreements were attempted at various times but have not produced a decisive political transition. In recent years the U.S. presence and pressure in the region have increased, adding another test to Maduro’s resilience.

What Maduro’s Survival Cost Venezuela

Maduro’s political longevity came at a high cost for Venezuelans: economic collapse, pervasive human rights concerns documented by international bodies, international isolation, and mass emigration. At the same time, his political model of cooptation — a confederation of military actors, party elites, state institutions and informal armed groups — creates strong disincentives for a sudden change of leadership, and raises fears that abrupt transitions could produce instability or violence.

Looking Ahead. Maduro remains the longest-serving head of state in Latin America since taking office in 2013. Whether he can withstand renewed diplomatic, economic and military pressure — and whether Venezuela’s political and humanitarian crises can be resolved through negotiation, reform or change of leadership — are questions that will shape the country’s near-term future.