Germany’s Tightrope on Israel and Gaza: Merz’s Visit, Arms Exports and Ceasefire Fragility

Overview

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Israel for the first time since taking office in May, days after Berlin ended a three-month pause on certain weapons export licences to Israel. The trip comes amid intense scrutiny of Germany’s defence ties with Israel, debates over whether Israel’s conduct in Gaza meets the legal threshold of genocide, and continuing concerns about violations of the October ceasefire.

Arms and Defence Links

Germany is one of Israel’s closest defence partners and its second-largest arms supplier after the United States. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), between 2019 and 2023 the US supplied roughly 69% of Israel’s military imports while Germany supplied about 30%; together those two countries accounted for about 99% of Israel’s reported arms imports in that period.

Since 2003 Germany has approved roughly €3.3 billion in arms sales to Israel, including naval systems such as the Sa’ar 6 corvettes and Dolphin-class submarines. In 2023 Berlin authorised 308 military export licences to Israel valued at €326.5 million, a notable rise from €32.3 million in 2022. German-made systems and munitions in Israeli service have included shoulder-fired rocket launchers, tank engines and missiles.

The Arrow 3 Deal

On 3 December Bloomberg reported that Israel will transfer the Arrow 3 long-range anti-ballistic missile defence system to Germany. The agreement, signed more than two years earlier and valued at over €3.6 billion, includes launch systems, munitions and radar and has been framed as a key procurement following Germany’s post-2022 defence reassessment.

Policy Shifts: Suspension and Reinstatement

On 8 August Chancellor Merz announced a temporary pause on issuing certain weapons export licences to Israel, citing the deteriorating civilian toll in Gaza while continuing to recognise Israel’s right to defend itself and urging the release of captives held by Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticised the pause as weakening support for Israel.

On 24 November Germany lifted the export restrictions, saying that the situation in Gaza had "stabilised" following the October ceasefire, but conditioned the decision on continued observance of the truce and the delivery of large-scale humanitarian aid.

Ceasefire Concerns and Reported Violations

Observers and aid agencies warn that violence has not fully stopped since the ceasefire. Reports attribute at least 360 Palestinian deaths and 922 injuries to strikes after the truce, and Gaza’s Government Media Office has recorded hundreds of alleged violations. Aid access remains limited, with Israel reportedly allowing only about 20% of the mandated humanitarian truck deliveries into Gaza. Qatar’s prime minister highlighted at the Doha Forum that the current pause risks unravelling without progress toward a durable peace.

Domestic Politics and Public Response

Domestically, the conflict has triggered frequent protests in Germany. ACLED data shows hundreds of Israel-Palestine-related demonstrations since October 2023, the majority supporting Palestine. German authorities have at times restricted or blocked demonstrations and events judged to be problematic under hate-speech and public-order rules, which has raised debate about free expression and law enforcement proportionality.

Economic and Diplomatic Ties

Beyond arms sales, Germany is an important economic partner for Israel. In 2023 Israel exported roughly $2.64 billion in goods to Germany, mainly advanced technologies and electronics, while Germany exported about $5.5 billion to Israel, led by machinery, electronics, cars and pharmaceuticals. German companies and venture capital investors are active across Israel’s tech sector.

At the United Nations General Assembly, Germany has sought a cautious approach: abstaining at times to avoid isolating Israel, while supporting resolutions consistent with international law and the two-state solution. Since October 2023 there have been at least seven UNGA votes related to Gaza and Palestine; Germany abstained on three and voted in favour of four.

Context And What To Watch

Merz has publicly said he does not regard Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide; human-rights groups and some legal experts continue to examine that allegation. The debate frames much of the domestic and international scrutiny of Germany’s policy.

Key things to watch include whether humanitarian access to Gaza increases, whether the ceasefire holds, any further changes in Germany’s export licensing, and how domestic protests and political pressure influence Berlin’s foreign policy toward Israel and the Palestinians.