1960 Physicist Predicted Doomsday — He Named an Exact Date: Nov. 13, 2026

Overview

In 1960 physicist Heinz von Foerster published a provocative population analysis in Science that, when extrapolated, led him to nominate Friday, Nov. 13, 2026 as a likely terminal date for humanity if accelerating population growth continued unchecked. The prediction resurfaced in recent retrospectives and was widely reported alongside updates to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' symbolic Doomsday Clock.

Von Foerster’s Argument

Von Foerster applied mathematical population-growth models and warned that, absent major limiting factors such as famine, war or disease, unchecked accelerating growth could produce catastrophic overcrowding. He proposed policy measures he called a "peoplo-stat" to hold global population at a chosen level, suggesting relatively mild incentives and disincentives—such as heavy taxation on families with more than two children—to slow growth.

"Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve. They will be squeezed to death." — Heinz von Foerster (1960)

Reception and Criticism

Von Foerster’s projection drew attention but also substantial criticism. Demographers and biologists pointed out that simple exponential extrapolations ignore important real-world constraints and feedbacks: fertility rates tend to decline as societies develop, gestation imposes biological limits, and growth rates frequently decelerate rather than continue accelerating indefinitely. Critics argued his date should be seen as a provocative mathematical outcome, not a precise prophecy.

The Doomsday Clock Context

Separately, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists maintains the symbolic Doomsday Clock to communicate how close humanity stands to self-inflicted catastrophe. In early 2025 the clock was set to 89 seconds to midnight, after a one-second advance, with the Bulletin citing nuclear risk, climate change, artificial intelligence, and disinformation as key concerns. The clock is a qualitative indicator intended to spur policy action and public awareness rather than a literal countdown.

What This Means Now

Von Foerster’s 1960 calculation is historically interesting: it combined mathematical modeling with policy prescriptions and sparked debate about how to think about long-term population risk. But most contemporary experts treat such singular dates skeptically. Population dynamics and existential risks are complex, and responsible policy depends on careful, up-to-date demographic science and ethical considerations rather than on a single mathematicized deadline.

Sources and Notes

This improved article draws on the 1960 piece by Heinz von Foerster as reported in retrospectives (including Time) and recent coverage referencing the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and reporting by The Providence Journal and USA Today. Von Foerster died in 2002.