Experts: Venezuelan Drug Boats Mostly Ferry Cocaine to Europe — Not Fentanyl to the U.S.

U.S. military strikes on suspected drug vessels in waters off Latin America have been defended by the administration as lifesaving efforts to keep narcotics — including fentanyl — off American streets. But current and former U.S. law enforcement and military officials, together with narcotics experts, say the picture at sea is different: most vessels targeted in the Caribbean are carrying cocaine from Venezuela to European markets, not fentanyl to the United States.

What experts say

Christopher Hernandez-Roy, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, "Fentanyl is not coming out of Venezuela. Fentanyl comes from Mexico. What’s coming out of Venezuela is cocaine." Officials estimate roughly 90% of drugs departing Venezuela are cocaine and are largely destined for Europe, where demand and prices are higher.

Rahul Gupta, former director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, described the maritime couriers as young, often recruited for pay in the low hundreds or thousands of dollars and treated as expendable by traffickers. Retired Coast Guard Rear Admiral William Baumgartner and other former officials warned that sinking vessels eliminates opportunities to seize evidence and interrogate suspects — actions that generate critical intelligence on cartel networks.

Administration position

White House and Pentagon spokespeople state their intelligence indicates the targeted boats were trafficking narcotics bound for the U.S. and that those involved qualify as "narco-terrorists." Since Sept. 2, the U.S. military has conducted 21 lethal strikes on vessels it said were carrying narcotics, which officials report resulted in more than 80 deaths. Supporters argue the strikes are lawful and necessary protections of national security.

Routes, markets and risks

Traffickers often use 60-foot "go-fast" boats from Venezuela to transfer cargo in the Caribbean to larger freighters that then proceed to Europe — sometimes via West Africa — or move small quantities on commercial air routes via human couriers. One common transfer point is the short route to Trinidad and Tobago. European markets can pay far higher prices for cocaine (estimates range from roughly $40,000 to $80,000 per kilogram in parts of Europe) than U.S. markets, creating strong incentives for that route.

Legal and strategic concerns

Critics from across the political spectrum have raised legal and policy questions about the strikes, and some U.S. partners have withheld intelligence over concerns about compliance with international and domestic law. Experts caution that lethal strikes alone are unlikely to reduce U.S. overdose deaths, which in 2023 were driven primarily by synthetic opioids, especially fentanyl — responsible for roughly 77,000 deaths from synthetic opioids that year.

"These boats do not carry fentanyl. They are carrying cocaine," said Rear Admiral William Baumgartner. "Killing or repatriating those on board can reduce long-term investigative effectiveness because most of our intelligence comes from those we capture."

Analysts including Vanda Felbab-Brown of Brookings argue the strikes are likely to prompt traffickers to adapt routes and methods rather than dismantle their networks. Critics call the campaign largely symbolic without a broader strategy addressing addiction, interdiction across all major routes, and the cartels’ financial and logistical systems.

Key datapoints: 21 U.S. strikes since Sept. 2; 80+ reported killed in those actions; roughly 77,000 U.S. deaths from synthetic opioids in 2023. The debate centers on whether maritime strikes in the Caribbean can meaningfully reduce fentanyl-related harm in the United States, given that most fentanyl is trafficked overland from Mexico and much Caribbean maritime traffic is oriented toward Europe.