Trump Keeps Maduro Guessing as U.S. Escalates Military and Covert Pressure in Venezuela

President Donald Trump has left Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and international observers uncertain about Washington's next steps as the U.S. expands its military presence in the Caribbean and authorizes covert action inside Venezuela. The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford recently deployed to the region while U.S. officials say the CIA has been cleared to conduct clandestine operations inside the country.

The administration has not ruled out using military force or committing troops on Venezuelan soil, even as it publicly signals willingness to hold talks with Maduro — a combination analysts describe as intended to keep the Venezuelan leader off balance.

Certainly, I would not want to lay money on whether or not the U.S. president authorizes the use of military force; that's certainly a possibility, and it serves as leverage in any potential negotiations.

Beyond counter-narcotics goals, some U.S. officials reportedly press for regime change in Caracas. To increase pressure, the United States has amassed military assets across the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility, including warships, F-35 fighters, the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit and surveillance aircraft. The administration has also designated the so-called Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization and accused President Maduro of links to the network.

Officials say the deployment, described by some inside the government as "Operation Southern Spear," involves roughly 15,000 U.S. service members, including personnel aboard ships and at bases in Puerto Rico. U.S. forces have also struck vessels alleged to be involved in drug trafficking: according to officials, at least 21 boats were engaged and an estimated 83 people were killed in those operations — actions that have prompted legal and human-rights concerns from critics and some foreign partners.

Democratic lawmakers and advisers have questioned whether the White House strategy has a clear, coherent endgame. One congressional aide expressed worry that keeping adversaries guessing could reflect a deliberate bargaining posture — or uncertainty inside the administration about next steps.

At the same time, Venezuelan leaders have signaled interest in diplomacy. Administration sources say U.S. officials rejected a back-channel offer in which Maduro would step down after several years in exchange for eased pressure; the president, however, has publicly left the door open to talks. Analysts note that negotiated transitions are usually slow, involve difficult compromises and rarely match maximalist demands on either side.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the United States has the capability to expand operations against drug networks both at sea and on land, arguing that U.S. forces could apply lessons learned from other theaters. Public opinion is divided: a recent poll reported more Americans opposed than supported using U.S. military force to remove Maduro, while a significant share remained unsure.

Analysts caution that hard-line measures carry risks. The military buildup and continued strikes may increase leverage for Washington, but they also raise the possibility of escalation and humanitarian consequences. Many experts argue that a sustainable political transition in Venezuela will likely require patient negotiation, international coordination and concessions from multiple parties.

What to watch next: whether Washington pursues expanded kinetic operations, intensifies covert actions, or shifts toward negotiated diplomacy; and how regional and international actors react to U.S. pressure on Caracas.