Millions Flood Tennessee’s 7th District Special Election as December Vote Nears

Millions of dollars are pouring into Tennessee’s deep-red 7th Congressional District as Republican Matt Van Epps and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn prepare for an early December special election. Outside groups and the campaigns have sharply increased ad buys and independent expenditures in a district President Donald Trump carried by 22 points in 2024.

Fundraising and campaign cash

Aftyn Behn reported raising more than $1 million from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12 and spent a little more than half of that during the same reporting window, leaving her with about $522,000 on hand. Matt Van Epps raised roughly $591,000 in the period and spent most of it, finishing with roughly $231,000 available for the campaign’s final stretch.

Outside spending and ad advantage

Conservative outside groups have been especially active. The Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. has reported more than $1 million in independent expenditures — its first federal intervention this year — and other conservative organizations, including Club for Growth and a GOP megadonor-funded super PAC, have also invested heavily in the race.

Overall, outside groups have spent more than $3.3 million either opposing Behn or supporting Van Epps, compared with slightly more than $900,000 in independent expenditures aimed at helping Behn. About $100,000 of the pro-Van Epps spending also supports independent candidate Jon Thorp, an Army veteran who could siphon votes that might otherwise go to the Republican.

Republicans hold an advertising advantage: the Van Epps campaign and allied groups have bought roughly $730,000 in air time since the primary, while Democrats have spent about $500,000, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Messages, endorsements and the ad war

Behn is pitching herself as an accountability candidate who can check the power of the majority party in the House. She is targeting independents, moderate Republicans and her Nashville Democratic base, criticizing the GOP’s signature tax cuts and recent spending bill, as well as tariffs enacted during the Trump era. Her campaign has leaned on endorsements and support from Democratic leaders such as DNC Chair Ken Martin and former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Van Epps, an Army veteran and former state official, touts endorsements from former President Donald Trump, Gov. Bill Lee and former Rep. Mark Green, who resigned from the seat in April. He has leaned on pro-Trump themes to energize Republican voters while also emphasizing kitchen-table issues such as lowering prices. Van Epps’ own ads emphasize his military service.

Super PACs backing Van Epps have tried to portray Behn as radical, running a clip in which she describes herself as a "very radical person" and drawing parallels to national progressive figures. Behn has responded with ads that liken working Americans’ struggles to a bumpy mechanical-bull ride and criticized expiring Medicare subsidies, tariffs, and delays in releasing documents related to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation.

What to watch

Low turnout expected for an unusually timed election makes the contest vulnerable to outside spending and get-out-the-vote operations. Key variables include whether Behn can win over independents and moderate Republicans, whether Jon Thorp siphons conservative votes, and whether the Republican ad advantage translates into turnout. The race is being watched as a barometer of how outside money and targeted messaging perform in a strongly Republican district.

Names mentioned in this report include campaign officials and public figures linked to the race.