Afghanistan Reroutes Trade After Deadly Border Clash with Pakistan

Afghanistan is urgently diversifying its trade routes after a deadly exchange of fire on the Pakistan border in October plunged bilateral ties to a new low and disrupted cross-border commerce on both sides.

The neighbouring countries have been locked in a tense dispute since the Taliban took control of Kabul in 2021, with Islamabad accusing Afghan territory of sheltering militants involved in cross‑border attacks — allegations the Afghan authorities deny. On October 12 the frontier was closed after the clash, leaving dozens of trucks stranded with perishable produce.

Economic shock and immediate consequences

Pakistan handled about 45% of Afghanistan's exports in 2024, according to World Bank data. More than 70% of those exports — roughly $1.4 billion — are perishable agricultural products such as figs, pistachios, grapes and pomegranates. The border shutdown and subsequent fragile truce have caused heavy losses on both sides, estimated at more than $100 million, and disrupted the livelihoods of up to 25,000 border workers.

Containers bound for Afghanistan and Central Asia remain stuck in Pakistani ports, accruing daily charges estimated at $150–$200 each. The Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI) warned that with thousands of containers delayed, the collective financial burden is mounting rapidly.

New routes and swift pivots

Facing repeated disruptions, Afghan authorities and traders are pivoting to alternative corridors and markets. Trade with Iran and Turkmenistan has increased by an estimated 60–70% since mid‑October, according to Mohammad Yousuf Amin, head of the Herat Chamber of Commerce. Kabul also shipped apples and pomegranates to Russia for the first time last month, and state‑owned Ariana Afghan Airlines has cut freight rates to India as officials press New Delhi for stronger commercial ties.

Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar urged traders to "redirect their trade toward other alternative routes instead of Pakistan," signaling that Kabul will not guarantee protection for businesses that continue to rely primarily on Pakistani channels.

Practical hurdles remain

Analysts warn that alternative routes bring higher costs and logistical obstacles. Torek Farhadi, an economic analyst and former IMF adviser, said: "Afghanistan has too many fruits and vegetables it cannot store because there are no refrigerated warehouses. Exporting is the only way. And quickly, before the products spoil." Kabul has promoted Iran's Chabahar port as an option, but it is farther, costlier and complicated by US sanctions on Tehran.

Both countries have strong incentives to restore stable transit: Afghanistan needs Pakistan's sea access and large market, while Pakistan benefits from Afghan transit to reach Central Asia for textiles and energy goods. Islamabad says the closure aims to curb militant infiltration, but businesses and consumers on both sides are feeling the pain.

On-the-ground impact

In Peshawar, near the border, Afghan produce has largely disappeared from markets. Grape prices are reported at roughly four times previous levels, and tomato prices have more than doubled to over 200 rupees per kilogram. Truck drivers and border workers face lost wages and mounting costs.

"I haven't been paid for a month. No matter who I call, they say there is no money because the border is closed. If it doesn't reopen, we will be distraught," said Naeem Shah, a 48‑year‑old driver stranded at the border with sugar and cooking oil.

As Afghanistan seeks new trade partners and routes — including Iran, Turkmenistan, Russia and India — officials warn that structural investments in cold storage, transit infrastructure and diplomatic engagement will be essential to reduce vulnerability to future disruptions.