Jordan Bardella's Rise: From Book Launch to a Real Presidential Contender

In a gilt‑edged theatre opposite the Élysée, Jordan Bardella stepped onto the stage of the Théâtre Marigny on October 28, 2025 to launch his new book. The 30‑year‑old leader of the National Rally (RN) presented the event as a defining moment in his rapid ascent from protégé to credible presidential contender, with Marine Le Pen in the front row watching the man she once called 'my lion cub'.

Bardella described What the French Want as the product of 'encounters' with 20 selected workers, artisans and small business owners 'who get up early and never count their hours'. The theatre's roughly 1,000 seats were nearly full — a launch that quickly read as the opening act of a proto‑campaign.

Polling surge and political context

An Elabe poll published on November 1 placed Bardella at roughly 35–37.5% in the first round of the 2027 presidential race, more than double his nearest rival and marginally ahead of Marine Le Pen if she is permitted to stand. Le Pen's conviction in the EU assistants case carries a five‑year ban from public office; even if overturned on appeal, she says a late reversal would probably rule out a meaningful campaign, making Bardella the de facto standard‑bearer.

From book tour to campaign trail

What began as a book tour has taken on the cadence of a pre‑campaign. After Paris, Bardella visited Bruay‑la‑Buissière where some 1,200 people queued in the rain for a signing. Moments from the tour were clipped into viral TikToks for his two million followers, blending staged normality, behind‑the‑scenes footage and tightly produced public appearances.

Those appearances trace a deliberate map: former mining towns in the north, the Yonne where the RN made sweeping gains, and the Mediterranean arc of Toulon, Nice and Marseille — cities the RN hopes to target in next March's municipal contests. Securing one major city would be historic; winning several would supply the funding, legitimacy and mayoral networks the party lacked during the 2022 presidential campaign.

Style, substance and comparisons

Bardella's mix of social‑media reach and grassroots events has prompted comparisons with Zohran Mamdani in New York: both are young, digitally fluent and tapped into anti‑establishment energy. Ideologically they sit at opposite poles — Bardella is nationalist, anti‑immigration and Eurosceptic; Mamdani is progressive and pro‑housing — but the parallels lie in tone, tactics and generational appeal.

'Bardella now exists by himself. He is no longer a simple doublure,' said one senior pollster, noting that a solid third of French voters want the change the RN represents.

Analysts stress limits to the comparison. Some point to Bardella's lack of formal higher education and limited governing experience, contrasting him with opponents and foreign counterparts who are more seasoned in policy and debate.

Economic contradictions and credibility questions

Despite a more economically liberal rhetoric aimed at older and professional voters — borrowing language about enterprise, innovation and pro‑growth tax cuts — the RN's record on economic policy remains inconsistent. In recent budget debates RN deputies sided with the Left on measures such as reviving an 'exit tax', imposing a GAFA levy on digital giants and adding surcharges on share buybacks. Critics argue these moves produced millions in additional spending and expose tensions between free‑market talk and protectionist, redistributive measures.

Economists have also dismissed the RN's flagship 'counter‑budget' — which promises large savings through cuts to immigration, EU contributions and unspecified bureaucracy — as unrealistic. Bardella's suggestion that the European Central Bank should buy French debt directly drew sharp rebukes from eurozone officials and academic economists who warned it would breach the ECB's mandate.

Hard edges and ideological continuity

Underneath Bardella's polished performance is a harder agenda: he has called for France to become 'the most repressive country in Europe' on crime, proposing an end to automatic sentence reductions, the restoration of mandatory minimums and a reintroduction of military service. On Europe he has adopted a more sovereigntist tone and now leads a hard‑Right bloc in the European Parliament allied with Viktor Orbán's Fidesz.

Veteran observers warn that the RN's underlying worldview remains intact. Some argue the party's current foreign and security stances reflect hostility to Arabs and Muslims and a lingering sympathy toward authoritarian actors, even as leaders attempt to sanitise the party's image for broader electoral appeal.

Experience, scrutiny and the road ahead

Questions persist over whether Bardella has the depth to govern. He never attended university, has not run a ministry and held few roles outside the party besides a brief spell in his father's distribution business. Critics across the political spectrum — from regional conservatives to centrist veterans — have described him as media‑savvy but thin on substantive expertise.

Supporters counter that he channels a new generation of voters and that the RN's long effort to normalise its brand has opened political space. Bardella's book intersperses personal vignettes — a fisherman opposing EU quotas, a baker hit by energy bills, a tender tribute to his mother — and a notably brief reference to Marine Le Pen, a choice that signals both deference and a desire to present himself as an independent leader.

The coming municipal elections and the 2027 presidential race will test whether Bardella's momentum, digital fluency and carefully staged outreach can translate into durable political power — and whether experience, policy credibility and Europe's institutions will blunt or accelerate his ascent.