NERC projects a roughly 20 GW increase in winter electricity demand driven mainly by rapid data center growth, which lengthens daily peak periods and raises blackout risk in Texas, the Southeast and the Mid‑Atlantic. Smaller regional drivers include industrial electrification and semiconductor manufacturing. Rising bills and cost-recovery for new grid projects have sparked public pushback and affected local utility elections. Industry leaders have called for large-scale capacity additions, though funding and responsibility remain unclear.
Data Center Boom Fuels 20 GW Winter Power Surge, Raising Blackout Risk in Key U.S. Regions
NERC projects a roughly 20 GW increase in winter electricity demand driven mainly by rapid data center growth, which lengthens daily peak periods and raises blackout risk in Texas, the Southeast and the Mid‑Atlantic. Smaller regional drivers include industrial electrification and semiconductor manufacturing. Rising bills and cost-recovery for new grid projects have sparked public pushback and affected local utility elections. Industry leaders have called for large-scale capacity additions, though funding and responsibility remain unclear.
09:10 PM, 11/19/2025Technology
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) warns that a surge in data center construction is driving an estimated 20-gigawatt increase in expected electricity demand this winter compared with last year — a rise largely unrelated to household consumption. NERC cautions that this shift could elevate the risk of shortfalls during severe winter storms in certain regions.
Key findings
NERC identifies data centers as a leading contributor to the winter demand increase because they operate around the clock and change the shape of daily electricity loads, lengthening peak periods. Other localized factors include industrial electrification in the Southwest and expanded semiconductor manufacturing in the Northwest.
"The biggest one is data center growth in many parts of North America," said Mark Olson, NERC's manager of reliability assessment. "Other factors like electrification of transportation and heating vary by region, but data centers stand out among the leading contributors."
Where demand is rising
NERC points to the largest demand growth in Texas, parts of the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic — home to the so-called "data center alley." While these areas generally have sufficient resources in normal conditions, NERC warns that extreme weather events, such as a polar vortex, could create supply shortfalls and increase blackout risk.
Why this matters
Data centers operate continuously and can add substantial, steady loads to regional grids. As utilities plan multibillion-dollar generation and transmission projects to meet new demand, regulators currently allow many of those costs to be recovered from ratepayers — a structure that has prompted resident backlash in multiple states as household electricity bills rise.
Political and policy impacts
Public concern over higher bills and who should pay for new grid investments has begun to affect local politics. Recent utility commission elections in Georgia, for example, saw candidates campaign on affordability and protecting ratepayers from bearing disproportionate costs tied to data center expansion.
Industry requests and responses
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has urged policymakers to expand generation capacity rapidly, recommending an increase on the order of 100 gigawatts per year to support AI growth — a target he did not attach to specific funding proposals. Companies building data centers and major cloud providers were asked for comment; OpenAI, Amazon and Google did not immediately respond.
Outlook
NERC's analysis does not predict immediate widespread outages but emphasizes that planning and regional coordination will be critical to managing risk this winter. Policymakers, utilities and developers face trade-offs between fast infrastructure deployment and equitable cost-sharing across customers.