Shutdown Ended — Why Thanksgiving Air Travel Won’t Bounce Back Overnight

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history — 43 days, eight days longer than the 35-day stoppage during President Trump’s first term — has finally ended. But commercial air travel, which was hit particularly hard, will not return to normal immediately.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy ordered airlines to pare back schedules to give air traffic controllers relief. Safety is the top priority for controllers and the Transportation Security Officers who staff airport checkpoints. Still, controllers already have the authority to reduce capacity at busy hubs — for example, shrinking operations by 20 percent or more when staffing is short — which suggests that some of the broad reductions during the shutdown were driven as much by operational caution and political pressure as by immediate safety shortfalls.

With controllers and Transportation Security Officers now receiving back pay, airlines are beginning to restore routes and services trimmed during the shutdown, just ahead of Thanksgiving travel. Yet back pay alone will not stabilize the system: long-standing technology gaps and staffing shortfalls remain.

The nation’s air-traffic control technology is aging and falls short of modern needs. Disruptions earlier this year at Newark renewed calls for system upgrades. Estimates put the cost to modernize air-traffic systems at roughly $31 billion, but it is unclear whether funding will be approved in pieces or as a single package. Given that commercial aviation contributes more than $1 trillion to the U.S. economy annually, underinvesting in these upgrades would be short-sighted.

Personnel shortages compound the problem. Of roughly 14,000 active air traffic controllers — who earn a median salary near $145,000 per year — there is an estimated shortfall of about 3,000 controllers. Recruitment and training take years: classroom instruction and on-the-job certification cannot be rushed without reducing safety margins.

Proposals to raise the mandatory retirement age for controllers from 56 to 61 may offer a temporary staffing boost, but they are a risky stopgap. Extending the retirement age could become a permanent band-aid and might increase stress-related risks in a job that already demands constant, high-stakes attention.

Technology can help relieve pressure. Upgrading tools and adopting carefully vetted artificial intelligence systems to handle routine, repetitive tasks could free controllers to focus on complex decision-making, improving throughput while preserving safety and human oversight.

The shutdown did raise public awareness of air traffic control’s essential role. Most travelers never consider who sequences takeoffs and landings, assigns routes, or guides aircraft through storms. Controllers are the unsung traffic cops of the skies, enforcing procedures that keep the system safe and orderly.

Congress should prioritize funding to modernize the system and equip controllers with reliable, up-to-date tools. Lawmakers should resist quick fixes that lower training standards or simply raise retirement ages; those measures risk adding unnecessary danger to a system that millions rely on daily.

Should travelers keep holiday plans? Yes. The greater risk this season is weather — an early winter storm is far more likely to delay or cancel flights than lingering effects of the shutdown. Travelers should book confidently but plan for potential weather-related disruptions and last-mile challenges getting to airports.

About the author: Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of computer science at the Grainger College of Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. As a data scientist, he applies risk-based analytics to public policy challenges.