Europe and Sudan’s Refugee Crisis: Deadly Crossings, Criminalisation and Contested Policy

The conflict in Sudan that began in April 2023 has produced the largest displacement crisis in the world. Thousands of Sudanese refugees and asylum seekers are now stranded in Libya or attempting perilous sea crossings to Europe, with tragic losses along the way.

The crisis in numbers

Nearly 13 million people have been uprooted inside Sudan and across borders. More than four million have fled to neighbouring states such as Chad, Egypt and Libya. UNHCR records show that over 86,000 Sudanese are registered as asylum seekers or refugees in Libya — an increase of roughly 60,000 compared with pre-war figures.

Between April 2023 and January 2024 the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) recorded nearly 10,000 asylum applications by Sudanese nationals across EU member states, roughly double the previous year. Only a minority of those applicants have so far been granted protection; many remain awaiting decisions or have been refused.

Dangerous journeys and growing criminalisation

Smugglers routinely load overcrowded dinghies for the Mediterranean crossing; many vulnerable migrants are coerced or persuaded to 'steer' these boats in exchange for discounted fares. When crossings go wrong the human cost can be catastrophic: last week 42 people are believed to have drowned after a dinghy left the Libyan coast, including at least 29 Sudanese.

'I hope to soon take the journey across the sea to Europe,' said Hamid, a Sudanese refugee from Khartoum now in Libya. 'Hopefully, God will make the journey safe.'

Once in Europe, young Sudanese men have sometimes been prosecuted under anti-smuggling laws for steering boats. In Greece more than 200 Sudanese minors and young men, aged 15–21, face smuggling charges; several have received long sentences and are appealing. Migration experts warn that criminalising these youths risks further traumatising already vulnerable people and obscures the role of organised smuggling networks.

Roots of the RSF and controversial cooperation

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) trace their origins to the Janjaweed militias, which were implicated in brutal campaigns in Darfur in the 2000s and accused by human rights groups and some legal experts of atrocities that may have reached the scale of genocide. In 2013, elements of those militias were reorganised into the RSF.

Seeking international legitimacy, the RSF positioned itself as a partner in regional migration-management efforts. In 2014 the EU launched the 'Khartoum Process', intended to strengthen cooperation with East African states to counter irregular migration. Around $200 million was channelled into Sudan over the following five years for initiatives linked to that cooperation. Research by Sudan specialist Suliman Baldo in 2017 suggested some funding aimed at bolstering judicial and law-enforcement institutions may have been diverted, possibly benefiting armed actors. The EU has denied financing the RSF directly.

After Sudanese security forces — including RSF elements — killed more than 120 pro-democracy protesters in Khartoum on 3 June 2019, the EU suspended migration cooperation with Sudan. Some analysts argued the prior cooperation highlighted how migration policy can produce unintended political and ethical consequences.

What this means for policy and people

Europe faces a complex challenge: protecting people fleeing extreme violence while disrupting criminal smuggling networks and upholding the rule of law. Better-managed asylum procedures, safe and legal routes, clearer accountability for past aid or cooperation that may have strengthened abusive actors, and regional protections for those displaced are all part of potential responses.

Absent stronger, humane alternatives, desperate people will continue to take dangerous sea routes — and the risk of further tragedies and contentious legal outcomes in Europe will remain high.