Inside Iran's Security Crisis: Paranoia, Purges and the Fear of Israeli Spies

Iran's principal security organs are locked in an escalating cycle of suspicion and recrimination after an alleged wave of Israeli infiltration during a 12-day conflict in June. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other intelligence bodies are scrutinizing personnel and racing to demonstrate loyalty, producing arrests, executions and internal power struggles that analysts say are eroding operational cohesion.

Paranoia and internal purges

Officials and insiders say the discovery — or suspected presence — of foreign operatives has fostered a climate in which accusations are often indistinguishable from factional manoeuvring. In some cases, people with real contacts abroad are accused of betrayal; in others, longstanding personal and political disputes are being prosecuted as alleged espionage.

“Many officials, including within the Sepah, are doing everything they can to convince the system they haven’t done anything wrong,” said a senior Iranian official in Tehran. “It’s obvious to everyone now that the Israelis have massively infiltrated several agencies.”

Authorities have detained hundreds on espionage charges since the summer fighting, and several people have been executed. Hard-line measures are being framed publicly as efforts to show the state is functioning, even as leakers and insiders warn that infighting and false accusations are being used to settle scores or weaken rivals.

Consequences for security and policy

Security analysts warn that the purge dynamic risks hollowing out experienced cadres at a time when Iran faces complex regional commitments and threats. Growing mistrust within the IRGC and intelligence services could blunt decision-making, compromise field operations, and make it harder to separate genuine threats from politically motivated denunciations.

Domestic pressures: protests, pollution and water scarcity

At the same time, the regime is confronting mounting domestic crises. A renewed crackdown on dissent has coincided with high-profile public anger: mourners at the funeral of a young man allegedly found dead after posting footage of burning an image of the supreme leader chanted anti-regime slogans, and videos of burning portraits have circulated widely online.

Environmental and public-health problems are compounding unrest. Authorities warned that a key dam supplying Tehran and a neighbouring province could run dangerously low, and severe air pollution has forced school closures in several cities, with Ahvaz reporting hazardous levels.

International isolation and the nuclear dilemma

Internationally, reimposed UN sanctions since the collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement have squeezed Iran's economic levers. The regime views nuclear capabilities as a survival guarantee, yet analysts argue that pursuing such options deepens isolation and raises the risk of confrontation — intensifying the very threats the leadership fears most.

Symbols and public mood

To shore up legitimacy, authorities have leaned on nationalist imagery drawn from Iran’s imperial past. A recently installed replica of a 1,700-year-old relief in central Tehran — depicting the Roman emperor Valerian kneeling before Sasanian King Shapur I — carried a slogan evoking future dominance. Meanwhile, a poll conducted by the Iranian Student Polling Agency for the president's office reported about 92% public dissatisfaction with current conditions.

Outlook

Although the regime remains intact and many analysts judge immediate collapse unlikely, the combined pressures of internal purges, regional entanglements, economic strain and environmental stress test the state's resilience. The interplay of paranoia and political rivalry inside Iran’s security apparatus is likely to shape its capacity to respond to both domestic unrest and regional crises in the months ahead.