Sheikh Hasina’s Death Sentence Deepens Bangladesh’s Political Uncertainty Ahead of February Vote

The death sentence handed this week to former prime minister Sheikh Hasina on charges of crimes against humanity has intensified political tensions in Bangladesh as the country prepares for national elections in February. Hasina, who has been in India since Aug. 5 following violent unrest that ended her 15‑year tenure, rejected the ruling as "biased and politically motivated."

Tense election outlook

The interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus is pushing to restore democratic norms with elections scheduled for February, but it has barred Hasina and her Awami League from participating. That exclusion — combined with deep polarization after last year’s deadly unrest — raises the risk of election‑related violence and disruption.

“The interim government has fully suppressed the Awami League … so the level of polarization is at a fever pitch,” said Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow with the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.

Analysts warn of two immediate concerns: efforts by Awami League activists to disrupt the vote and diminished police morale after the violent crackdown in 2024, when officers were on the front lines and some were killed in clashes. Hasina’s son has warned that the party could try to block the election unless the ban on its political activities is lifted, arguing that only an inclusive vote can restore stability.

From exile: a long game

India is unlikely to extradite Hasina, despite renewed requests from Dhaka. Observers expect Hasina to manage party affairs from abroad and to play a long game — maintaining influence and preparing for a possible political return if circumstances change.

Sabir Mustafa, former head of the BBC’s Bengali Service, said the Awami League could be demoralized without Hasina’s direct leadership and needs substantial internal reforms. He called the in‑absentia trial "seriously flawed" and questioned the fairness of imposing a death sentence without the defendant present, but he also noted practical limits to large‑scale street protests in the near term.

International reaction and pressure on the interim government

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International raised concerns about the fairness of the trial process, while the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights described the verdict as an important moment for victims of last year’s crackdown — while reiterating opposition to the death penalty. These mixed responses leave the Yunus administration with the challenge of convincing international observers that the legal process was credible.

For Muhammad Yunus, the immediate priorities are ensuring a safe, peaceful environment for the February vote and demonstrating impartiality. Analysts caution that, with the Awami League barred, the interim government must also guard against manipulation by other major parties, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Jamaat‑e‑Islami.

What to watch next

• Whether the Awami League attempts public or electoral disruption in response to the verdict.
• How international actors — regional governments, donors and human rights bodies — respond and whether their concerns affect the credibility of the vote.
• The interim government’s capacity to maintain public order while upholding fair election standards.
• Efforts within the Awami League to reform and choose new leadership if Hasina remains in exile.

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bangladesh can hold elections that are both peaceful and perceived as legitimate by domestic and international audiences.