Trump’s Pre‑Midterm Push Falters as GOP Splits Deepen

The White House’s push to secure major Republican wins on Capitol Hill before next year’s midterms is colliding with a sharply divided GOP. Deep factional splits over strategy, policy scope and political risk have made sweeping, party-line action increasingly unlikely.

Republicans face a looming deadline: several Affordable Care Act subsidies expire at year-end, and the administration has signaled little appetite for negotiating with Democrats. A senior White House official this week floated the idea of a follow-up party-line bill — a sequel to the tax-focused megabill passed over the summer — but such a path would require near-total unity among House and Senate Republicans, something that has frayed amid recent infighting.

Relations inside the party have become strained after President Donald Trump publicly rebuked Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) following her criticism of his policies and her calls to release Justice Department records tied to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The episode underscored how quickly alliances can shift and how tenuous support for an aggressive legislative agenda has become.

Speaker Mike Johnson has emphasized unity, urging members to come together to "deliver for the people," but rank-and-file tensions persist. Behind closed doors, House leaders continue to debate health-care alternatives, and a slide shown by House Majority Leader Steve Scalise dismissed the expiring subsidies as part of the “Unaffordable Care Act.” At the same time, White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, speaking at a public forum, described a potential "affordability" package that could combine $2,000 checks — pitched by Trump as tariff "dividends" — with GOP-style health proposals.

Those proposals are unlikely to attract Democratic support with the midterms approaching, pushing Republicans toward partisan strategies. But key Senate Republicans have resisted calls to eliminate the filibuster, leaving reconciliation — the complex budget tool used this summer to pass the megabill — as the only straightforward purely partisan route. Reconciliation imposes strict rules on content, limiting what can be included and making a second, successful effort difficult.

Talk of another reconciliation package has circulated for months, initially used as a bargaining chip to secure conservative votes for the summer megabill. Momentum waned in the fall, and even Trump privately expressed doubts about what a second reconciliation bill could realistically achieve. Some GOP leaders hope to revive the idea in the spring, but memories of the party’s bruising 2017 health-care fight make many lawmakers cautious.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she does not want another one-sided reconciliation push. “I don’t want another one-sided, partisan reconciliation bill right now — I want us to legislate,” she said, urging bipartisan lawmaking where possible. Likewise, retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) left open the possibility of a new party-line package but warned it would need clear, upfront agreement to avoid unraveling.

Internal pressure surfaced during a closed-door House Republican meeting when Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-Texas) challenged leadership on why alternatives to the expiring subsidies were not developed months earlier. GOP aides say they had been waiting for direction from the White House; the president only recently offered public policy preferences and insisted any plan must return money "directly back to the people."

Other senators and House members were skeptical about the Dec. 31 timeline for overhauling subsidies. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) called the idea of restructuring subsidies to deliver them directly to Americans a welcome discussion but described it as unlikely to be completed before the deadline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a bipartisan deal remains possible but would depend on what Democrats would accept.

Senate Budget Committee Republicans are weighing a budget resolution early next year that would clear the procedural path for reconciliation, but GOP senators privately note that many preferred policies would struggle to meet reconciliation’s strict rules. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) expressed frustration that, despite holding the majority, Republicans have produced little legislative results since the big summer bill — a sentiment that helps explain the push-and-pull over whether to risk another high-stakes partisan effort in an election year.

Reporting contributions: Calen Razor.