US Budget Cuts Threaten Global Earth-Observation Systems — 'We Go Dark,' GCOS Deputy Warns

US federal budget proposals risk creating long-lasting gaps in the global systems that observe the atmosphere, oceans and land, Peter Thorne — deputy chair of the UN-backed Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) — warned in an interview. He said the potential losses would imperil weather forecasting, seasonal prediction and climate research for years, possibly decades.

What GCOS does and why it matters

GCOS is a UN-supported programme that brings together measurements from satellites, weather balloons, ocean floats and ground networks to produce the continuous records scientists and forecasters rely on. Thorne, who is also a professor at Maynooth University in Ireland, said the world has benefited for decades from major US investment and leadership in coordination — contributions that are now at risk.

Immediate and long-term impacts

Thorne said operational capacity is already slipping: the US has seen a 13–16% drop in weather balloon launches because of a smaller workforce to launch them. Without those and other observations, forecast accuracy at five to 10 days can deteriorate far from US shores — because weather models depend on observations from where the incoming weather originates.

"In the 30 years I've been in this game, we've always seen incremental improvements in our ability to diagnose the Earth system," Thorne said. "This is possibly the first time we're looking at an acute reversal in our capability to monitor the Earth, just when we need it the most."

He warned that draft budget plans would effectively cancel or delay future NASA Earth-observation missions and could substantially reduce NOAA satellite capabilities. Many of those missions have no direct equivalents in other space agencies' plans; their loss would create permanent gaps in critical climate and environmental records.

Ocean monitoring and seasonal forecasting at risk

The United States supplies roughly half of the funding and operations for the Argo float programme, which measures ocean heat content — where about 90% of excess planetary heat is stored. The US also supports the Moored Buoy Array in the Pacific, vital to monitoring and predicting El Niño, a driver of seasonal weather patterns worldwide. Cuts to these programmes would erode seasonal and agricultural forecasts across large regions, including Africa and the tropics.

Can others fill the gap?

Thorne cautioned that if some planned NASA or NOAA satellites are not launched, the world would face guaranteed multi-year — even decade-plus — gaps in observation. Even if other agencies such as ESA or national programmes attempted to replace lost capabilities, building and launching equivalent satellites would likely take at least 10 to 15 years.

Thorne's bottom line: continuous, coordinated global observation is essential because the Earth system is humanity's life-support system. He urged governments to recognise the scale of the risk and to prioritise funding and international cooperation to avoid long-term blind spots.

Source: Peter Thorne, deputy chair, Global Climate Observing System; Professor, Maynooth University.