Trump’s McDonald’s Pitch vs. Reality: Fast-Food Prices Are Not Falling

Trump’s McDonald’s Remarks Overstate the Case — Franchisees Still Feel the Squeeze

When President Trump opened his remarks to McDonald’s executives and franchise owners by calling himself “the very first former McDonald’s fry cook to ever become President of the United States,” he set a ceremonial tone that matched the rest of his speech: performative, selective, and often misleading.

The president never actually worked at McDonald’s. His comment echoed a 2024 campaign stunt in which he briefly served fries to prescreened customers at a closed location. That appearance was aimed in part at needle his opponent, who does have McDonald’s work experience, and in part at borrowing the chain’s blue-collar image.

Addressing franchisees this week, Trump described the country as in a “golden age,” asserting that prices are coming down and crediting his administration’s policies — including tariffs — for the improvement. He even said a senior McDonald’s official privately told him prices had risen “40% because of Biden and inflation” and that they were now “coming down rapidly.”

“You are so damn lucky that I won that election, I’m telling you,” he said to attendees.

That upbeat framing does not match broad market data for fast food. Market-research firm Numerator’s figures show the average fast-food meal recently cost about $14.11 over the past four weeks — essentially unchanged from a projected $14.12 had January trends continued. In short: fast-food prices have not fallen in any meaningful way.

Restaurants have absorbed some costs to shield customers, and many entree prices have held relatively steady this year. But commodity costs are higher: ground beef alone is up more than 14% since January, a significant headwind for operators that rely on lower-priced menu items.

McDonald’s customer base includes many lower-income Americans whose spending shifts quickly when confidence or purchasing power declines. Over the summer, the company flagged warning signs: breakfast sales — described internally as the chain’s “most economically sensitive” meal — fell as some customers skipped breakfast or ate at home. More recently, McDonald’s reported fewer visits and lower spending among lower-income customers despite earlier promotional pricing.

Part of the pressure on beef prices and on restaurant margins has been trade policy. Tariffs on some foreign meat imports helped push costs upward. Facing those pressures, the administration has begun to roll back certain tariffs, including on beef, in an attempt to relieve prices and support a slowing economy.

Consumer confidence has weakened during the president’s second term amid worries about prices and the impact of a government shutdown, factors that can reduce visits to quick-service restaurants. While the administration credits its policies for preventing worse outcomes, many franchisees appear to be dealing with rising input costs and softer customer traffic — circumstances that don’t square with the claim that prices are broadly coming down.

In short, the theatrical appeal to working-class credibility and the claim that fast-food prices are falling do not hold up under scrutiny. Franchise owners who depend on cost-sensitive customers are likely feeling far less lucky than the president suggested.