Is Venezuela Ready for a US Attack? Military Posture, Risks and What Comes Next

Is Venezuela Ready for a US Attack?

Venezuela announced a nationwide military mobilisation this week after a visible increase in United States naval forces near its coast and the launch of an operation Washington calls Operation Southern Spear. Caracas says the move is defensive; the US says it targets so-called "narco-terrorists." The standoff has sharpened fears in both capitals and raised questions about military capabilities, intent and the risks of further escalation.

What has happened so far?

For weeks the Trump administration has struck a series of small vessels in the Caribbean and the Pacific that US officials say were involved in drug trafficking. US officials have described this week’s action as the 20th such strike, and estimate about 80 people have died across these incidents. Critics say the administration has not publicly produced clear evidence that the bombed boats carried drugs or were destined for the United States, nor provided a widely accepted legal rationale for the strikes.

At the same time, the US deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group into Caribbean and Latin American waters. The Ford is a nuclear-powered supercarrier — a floating airbase that sails with guided-missile destroyers, support vessels, more than 4,000 personnel and dozens of tactical aircraft ready for rapid operations.

How has Venezuela responded?

On Tuesday, Venezuela’s Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López announced a "higher phase" of Independence Plan 200, calling for what he described as a "massive" mobilisation of troops and civilians. Padrino López said nearly 200,000 personnel were mobilised for the exercise and framed the move as resistance to "imperialist aggression." Foreign Minister Yvan Gil warned Washington: 'We tell the American empire not to dare: We are prepared.'

'More than 90 percent of the people reject any aggression against Venezuela,' Padrino López said, while dismissing opposition groups as a marginal force.

What are Venezuela’s core military strengths and weaknesses?

Analysts note Venezuela retains significant manpower and certain weapons systems — but also serious readiness and capability gaps.

• Manpower: Global Firepower’s 2025 assessment lists Venezuela 50th out of 160 countries. It estimates roughly 337,000 personnel associated with Venezuela's security forces: about 109,000 active-duty troops, 220,000 paramilitary personnel and roughly 8,000 reservists. However, many of these forces have been focused on internal security rather than conventional combat training.
• Air power: Recent reporting from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) describes the Venezuelan air force as small and partly non-operational. Of roughly 49 military aircraft, only about 30 are believed operational; sanctions have limited spare parts and only three F-16s are reportedly still flyable.
• Russian systems: Venezuela invested in Russian-made platforms, including at least 21 Su-30 fighters. These aircraft can carry supersonic anti-ship missiles such as the Kh-31A, which present a credible threat to ships operating close to Venezuelan waters.
• Navy: Venezuela’s navy is considerably outmatched by US maritime power. While coastal defences and anti-ship missiles can complicate operations near shore, the US enjoys uncontested naval superiority across the region.

How might a conflict play out?

Most experts agree the United States is militarily superior in conventional terms. CSIS warns that, in any major conflict, Venezuelan airfields and aircraft would be early targets, and the US has also deployed F-35 stealth fighters to the region to counter air and air-defence threats.

Yet superiority on paper does not guarantee a quick, low-cost outcome. Analysts point to the potential for asymmetric resistance: widespread partisan mobilisation, guerrilla-style tactics, and disruption of governance and logistics could make occupation or regime change costly and protracted.

'No one can match the power of the United States military in conventional warfare,' said Elías Ferrer of Orinoco Research. 'The relevant question is whether local forces can make the country ungovernable and raise the cost of intervention.'

What are the likely political calculations?

The Trump administration has presented its actions as an effort to stem drug flows to the US, but many analysts view the buildup as an instrument of pressure on President Nicolás Maduro. Venezuelan political scientist Carlos Pina argues Washington’s preferred option remains political pressure to force a peaceful handover of power rather than an outright invasion.

Still, Pina warned that the large US deployment creates its own momentum: withdrawing without achieving objectives could be politically costly in Washington, potentially increasing incentives for further escalation or additional measures short of full invasion.

Bottom line

Venezuela is not militarily on par with the United States in conventional terms, especially at sea and in sustained air operations. But Caracas possesses manpower, layered air-defence and anti-ship capabilities and the political will to mobilise popular and paramilitary forces — all of which complicate any potential military action. Most analysts judge political pressure and escalation short of full-scale invasion as the likeliest near-term outcome, though the situation remains fluid and risky.