How La Niña Could Shape Mississippi's Winter: Federal Forecast and Local Impacts

How La Niña Could Shape Mississippi's Winter: Federal Forecast and Local Impacts

Federal forecasters reported on Nov. 13 that La Niña conditions have strengthened, driven by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said. La Niña is one phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring Pacific climate cycle that strongly influences U.S. weather from late fall through early spring.

What La Niña typically does:

• Brings cooler, often snowier conditions to the Pacific Northwest.
• Tends to produce drier-than-average weather across much of the southern United States.
• The Southeast and mid-Atlantic often experience warmer-than-average winters during La Niña events.

This year's outlook

The CPC and NOAA characterize the current La Niña as weak and expect it to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a likely transition to ENSO-neutral in January–March 2026. A weak La Niña can nudge seasonal patterns but often yields subtler and less certain local impacts than a strong event.

NOAA's winter forecast (Dec–Feb): NOAA's seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures for much of the U.S. For Mississippi specifically, the agency expects generally warmer-than-average conditions statewide. Precipitation chances vary by region: the extreme northwest of the state is more likely to see above-average precipitation, while the Gulf Coast may be a bit drier than normal.

Local context — average daily temperatures (Jackson, NWS):

• November: 55.4°F
• December: 49.1°F
• January: 47.0°F
• February: 50.9°F
• March: 57.9°F

"A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)." — NOAA, Nov. 13 ENSO outlook

Hurricane-season connection

La Niña often reduces vertical wind shear across parts of the tropical Atlantic, which can increase the potential for tropical cyclone development late in the season. AccuWeather noted that La Niña "favors an active end to the hurricane season." As of mid-November the Atlantic produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes; climatological averages are about 14 named storms and seven hurricanes per season. Hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30, but conditions will continue to be monitored.

Bottom line: Expect a generally mild winter across most of Mississippi, with some regional differences (a wetter signal in the far northwest and slightly drier conditions along the Gulf Coast). Because this La Niña is expected to be weak, typical La Niña winter signals may be muted; short-term weather patterns will still strongly influence day-to-day conditions. Forecasters will keep watching ENSO and other climate drivers and will update seasonal guidance as winter develops.