Brazil Expands Ties with China and Russia as It Seeks Greater Strategic Autonomy
Brazil is broadening political and economic relations with China and Russia to reduce reliance on the United States, a shift analysts say has been accelerated by recent U.S. tariffs and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's push for a more independent global role.
Drivers of the Shift
R. Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American Studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, describes Brasília's approach as "the most left-leaning foreign policy it has had in decades," characterized by closer cooperation with powers that challenge traditional U.S. influence in the region.
Ellis identifies three pillars underpinning this realignment: expanding military and technological cooperation with China and Russia; energy and investment diplomacy that reduces the footprint of U.S. companies; and deeper engagement with multilateral forums such as BRICS that seek to reshape aspects of the international order.
Economic Footprint
The diplomatic realignment followed Washington's July move to impose tariffs of up to 50% on certain Brazilian goods, a measure Brasília called "unjustified." In response, Brazil has emphasized diversifying trade and investment partners.
According to the Brazil-China Business Council, China doubled direct investment flows into Brazil in 2024 to $4.2 billion, targeted mainly at energy, infrastructure and telecommunications projects. Chinese companies such as State Grid, Huawei and Xiaomi now have leading positions in sectors ranging from power transmission to smartphones. Brazil's Agriculture Ministry reported agribusiness exports of $15 billion in April, with China accounting for 36% of those sales.
Security and Regional Implications
Ellis stresses that Brazil's strategy appears aimed at "strategic autonomy" rather than an outright break with Washington. "Brazil's willingness to diversify its security partnerships beyond Washington shows a deliberate intent to gain autonomy," he told UPI.
"For now, I don't see a reduction of U.S. leverage, but rather a strong counterbalance," Ellis said, noting Brazil's size, economic weight and military capacity in the hemisphere.
Brazil has also increased trade with Russia—notably fertilizers and fuel—and is negotiating local-currency transactions with Iran. Ellis warns the growing ties could create new economic and military gateways for Russia, China and Iran in Latin America and offer regional governments alternatives to the United States.
Domestic and Regional Reactions
Ellis expects neighboring governments to remain pragmatically engaged with Brazil despite political frictions: Mercosur partners will still regard Brazil as pivotal, though mistrust persists in countries such as Paraguay and Uruguay, and Argentina retains historic rivalries. Conservative sectors in Brazil—especially within the military—are said to view the Workers' Party's left-leaning agenda and deepening ties with China, Russia and Iran with concern.
Nonetheless, Ellis believes President Lula is unlikely to fully align with autocratic regimes like Venezuela or Nicaragua, leaving Brazil in an ambiguous but increasingly influential position that blends economic hedging with geopolitical realignment.
