Iraq's Government Puzzle: Sudani Tops Vote but Faces Lengthy Coalition Battle

Following this week's parliamentary vote in Iraq, the complex and often slow process of choosing the next government is underway. Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has declared his coalition the largest bloc in preliminary returns, but it still falls short of an outright majority needed to form a government.

Sudani must now negotiate with other parties — primarily Shiite factions — to build a coalition large enough to nominate a new prime minister and form a cabinet. Formal seat allocations in parliament have not yet been announced, and negotiations could take weeks or months as parties bargain over posts and policy priorities.

How is a government formed?

Naming a prime minister and assembling a cabinet in Iraq typically involves protracted political bargaining. By long-standing convention the prime minister is a Shiite Muslim, the parliament speaker a Sunni, and the largely ceremonial presidency a Kurd. Because no single list has won an outright majority since the 2003 political order was established, the next leader will come from whichever coalition can gather the most allies and command a working majority.

Parliamentary seats are often treated as bargaining chips: parties that win seats may form alliances, concede posts, or even see newly elected lawmakers switch allegiances during negotiations. Since the first post-2003 parliament, only Nuri al-Maliki has completed two consecutive terms (2006–2014), underlining how unstable and contingent Iraqi governing coalitions can be.

Possible outcomes and internal dynamics

At present, no major challenger has emerged beyond Sudani, who himself was relatively unknown before his 2022 nomination. The Coordination Framework — the Shiite alliance that brought Sudani to power — appears divided over whether to back him for a second term. Some senior figures, including former premier Nuri al-Maliki, are reported to oppose a Sudani continuation, arguing that he consolidated too much authority during his first term. Allegations have also surfaced that officials in Sudani’s office were involved in wiretapping political rivals.

“They will name the next premier and participate in choosing the parliament speaker, his deputies and the president,” said a source in a main Coordination Framework party, describing plans to reunite and form the largest bloc.

Lessons from past elections

Past votes show how unpredictable coalition-building can be. In 2010, Iyad Allawi’s bloc won the most seats but after months of negotiations Nuri al-Maliki returned as prime minister. In 2021, Muqtada al-Sadr’s bloc emerged as the largest grouping but later withdrew amid violent clashes; rival Shiite parties then formed the Coordination Framework and installed Sudani.

Regional and international factors

Iraq remains a focal point of competition between Washington and Tehran. Iran has long-standing political influence inside Iraq and backs armed groups that now hold both military and political sway. The United States seeks to limit Tehran’s influence and has pressured Baghdad to disarm certain Iran-aligned militias — some of which remain politically active and may hold parliamentary seats.

Foreign policy constraints will shape coalition choices. Last week, Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said six pro-Iran factions are on a US blacklist — a significant factor potential coalition partners will need to weigh as they decide whether to join a government that could face international pressure or sanctions.

As negotiations proceed, the balance of power inside the Shiite political camp, the willingness of Sunni and Kurdish parties to cooperate, and the reactions of regional and international actors will determine who becomes Iraq’s next prime minister and how stable the next government will be.