Major Solar Storm May Be Heading for Earth
British Geological Survey scientists warn that Earth could be struck by the most powerful solar storm observed in more than 20 years. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has upgraded its forecast from G3 (“strong”) to G4 (“severe”) for the expected event, and the British Geological Survey says it could intensify to G5 (“extreme”).
What experts are seeing: The British Geological Survey said that, based on satellite observations and ground measurements of solar energetic particles, early readings are among the largest recorded since 2005. The organization cautioned that, as with any space-weather forecast, the exact timing and peak intensity remain uncertain.
“Solar storms can travel from the Sun to Earth in as little as 17 hours, although they can also take significantly longer,” the British Geological Survey said.
How geomagnetic storms form and what they can do: Geomagnetic storms occur when the Sun releases large streams of charged particles. Those particles can damage or degrade satellites, disrupt GPS and communications, interfere with radio signals, and—if strong enough—affect ground-based systems such as power grids and precision navigation equipment.
In May 2024, for example, a powerful G5 event reportedly caused GPS-dependent farm machinery to malfunction. A separate large flare in October 2024 produced a temporary radio blackout on Earth. In October 2024, NASA also confirmed the Sun had reached solar maximum, the most active phase of its roughly 11-year cycle; current forecasts indicate significant activity continues.
Impact on space operations: The ongoing solar activity has already affected launch planning. Blue Origin postponed a second launch attempt of its New Glenn rocket, which was scheduled to carry two NASA spacecraft called ESCAPADE to Mars. Blue Origin said the delay was to protect the ESCAPADE probes from potential effects of the heightened solar activity while NASA assesses the launch window.
Visible effects: One of the more immediate and public-facing impacts is spectacular auroral displays. The particle bombardment of Earth’s upper atmosphere is producing bright northern lights that have been seen across large parts of North America and as far south as Alabama.
What to expect next
Forecasters will continue to refine arrival-time estimates and intensity forecasts as more data arrive from satellites and ground monitors. Agencies and operators of sensitive infrastructure—satellite operators, power-grid managers, aviation and maritime services, and launch providers—are monitoring conditions closely and taking protective measures where necessary.
