Al‑Sudani’s Coalition Leads Iraqi Vote but Falls Short of Majority — KDP Tops Nineveh

Preliminary results: No single bloc wins clear majority

Iraq’s preliminary parliamentary results show Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani’s Reconstruction and Change coalition topping the count in eight of the country’s 18 provinces, but falling short of a clear parliamentary majority that would allow it to form a government alone.

Where the winners were

The Reconstruction and Change list led in Baghdad, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Karbala, Muthanna, Maysan, Dhi Qar and Babil. Voting followed familiar regional and sectarian patterns: Shiite lists won in Shia‑majority provinces, Sunni lists in Sunni areas, and Kurdish parties in Kurdish regions.

Baghdad, Nineveh and Basra are the largest delegations, with 71 seats in Baghdad, 34 in Nineveh and 25 in Basra. Al‑Sudani’s coalition led in Baghdad; the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) surprised observers by taking the top spot in Nineveh; and the Tasmeem list, led by Basra Governor Asaad al‑Eidani, topped the count in Basra.

Notable surprises and local results

The most unexpected development was the KDP leading in Nineveh, a predominantly Sunni Arab province — a result that signals shifting local dynamics. Diyala, which includes a sizeable Kurdish minority, returned no Kurdish winners for the first time since 2005.

In Kirkuk — where pre‑election clashes between rival party supporters left two police officers dead — the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) finished first, followed by the Taqaddum party of former parliament speaker Mohammed al‑Halbousi in second place and a Turkmen list in third.

Turnout and participation

Election authorities reported final turnout of about 56% of registered voters. That figure includes voting over Tuesday’s general election and special ballots cast on Sunday by members of the military and security forces and by internally displaced people living in camps. Turnout was notably lower in areas with large numbers of supporters of Muqtada al‑Sadr, including Baghdad and Najaf, following Sadr’s call for a boycott.

Political consequences and context

Because no single bloc achieved a decisive majority, forming the next government will require coalition negotiations and power‑sharing among the leading lists. This outcome echoes previous elections — notably 2021 — when the largest bloc could not translate its parliamentary lead into a governing majority after political stalemates and withdrawals.

Supporters of al‑Sudani celebrated the preliminary results in Baghdad, converging on Tahrir Square in convoys of cars and motorcycles. 'He is the number one in Iraq, and not only Baghdad,' said Hamid Hemid, a participant from Baghdad.

Al‑Sudani — who became prime minister in 2022 with backing from some pro‑Iran parties — has since sought to balance relations with Tehran and Washington and has emphasized pragmatic improvements to public services. Despite relative stability during his first term, he faces mounting pressure from the U.S. to curb the influence of Iran‑aligned armed factions. Several militia‑linked lists performed strongly in parts of the country, though they were not the top vote‑getters nationwide.

Since the 2003 U.S.‑led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, only one Iraqi prime minister has served more than a single term, underscoring the country’s often fractious political landscape.