A Decade After Paris: Renewables Surge — But the World Has Drifted Off the 1.5°C Path

A Decade After Paris: Renewables Surge — But the World Has Drifted Off the 1.5°C Path

BELEM, Brazil — Ten years after leaders hailed the Paris Agreement as a roadmap to limit global warming, the world has changed dramatically — and not entirely in the ways negotiators hoped. While renewable energy and electric vehicle adoption have accelerated, the pace of emissions reductions and climate impacts has left the globe off course to meet the 1.5°C target.

“I think it's important that we're honest with the world and we declare failure,” said Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, noting that harms from warming are appearing faster and more severely than expected.

Still, negotiators and analysts point to meaningful gains: future warming projections have improved by more than 1°C since 2015 thanks to cleaner energy deployment and technology advances. But experts warn those gains are insufficient and uneven, and the gap between ambitions and action is widening.

Danger signs mounting

Observed and measured impacts over the last decade underline the urgency:

• Global average temperatures have risen about 0.46°C (0.83°F) since 2015, one of the largest 10-year increases on record, according to Copernicus.
• More than 7 trillion tons of glacier and ice-sheet ice has been lost since 2015 — roughly equivalent to over 19 million Empire State Buildings — accelerating sea-level rise by about 40 mm (1.6 inches) in the past decade.
• The U.S. experienced 193 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the past decade, with total damages near $1.5 trillion, and the Atlantic saw an unusually high number of Category 5 hurricanes.
• Deadly heat waves, intensified wildfires and catastrophic floods have struck across continents, with scientists finding the fingerprint of human-caused climate change on many — though not all — extreme events.

Progress — but not nearly enough

There are notable successes: renewables are often now cheaper than fossil fuels, and last year 74% of new global electricity generation growth came from wind, solar and other low-carbon sources. Electric vehicle sales rose from about 500,000 in 2015 to roughly 17 million last year.

Those shifts have changed projected warming: where 2015 projections pointed toward nearly 4°C of warming this century, current trajectories put the world closer to 2.8°C — an important improvement, but well above the Paris goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C.

“Technologies, once hypothetical, are now becoming a reality,” said Kelly Levin of the Bezos Earth Fund. “But it’s not nearly fast enough for what’s needed.”

Emissions trends and inequality

Global greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise: atmospheric methane increased about 5.2% from 2015 to 2024, and carbon dioxide rose about 5.8% over the same period (NOAA). Emissions patterns are uneven: several developed economies have cut CO2 roughly 7% since 2015, while emissions rose in other major economies — China +15.5%, India +26.7% (Global Carbon Project).

Analyses also show widening inequality in emissions: the richest 0.1% increased their carbon footprints while the poorest 10% reduced theirs, highlighting equity challenges in global climate action (Oxfam).

What negotiators will press for in Belem

Delegates meeting in Belem will focus on closing the gap between pledges and the rapid implementation required: speeding the transition from fossil fuels, scaling financing for clean energy and adaptation, reducing methane emissions, and protecting forests such as the Amazon, which has sometimes shifted from carbon sink to net emitter due to deforestation.

“We're sort of sawing the branch on which we are sitting,” said U.N. Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen, summarizing the stakes.

Experts emphasize that the next few years are critical: continued deployment of affordable clean technologies can bend the curve, but only if governments, businesses and finance move faster and more equitably to reduce emissions and protect vulnerable communities.

Reporting draws on data and analysis from Copernicus, NOAA, the Global Carbon Project, U.N. reports and assessments by climate research organizations; The Associated Press contributed to the journalism behind this coverage.