World Weather Attribution found that human-driven warming made Hurricane Melissa stronger — boosting peak winds by about 7% and rainfall intensity by roughly 16% — and made the warm, humid conditions that fueled the storm about six times more likely. Melissa struck Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, causing dozens of deaths and extensive damage. Scientists link the storm's rapid intensification to unusually warm Caribbean sea surface temperatures, about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, and warn such intense storms are consistent with a warming world.
Study: Climate Change Amplified Hurricane Melissa’s Winds and Rain
World Weather Attribution found that human-driven warming made Hurricane Melissa stronger — boosting peak winds by about 7% and rainfall intensity by roughly 16% — and made the warm, humid conditions that fueled the storm about six times more likely. Melissa struck Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, causing dozens of deaths and extensive damage. Scientists link the storm's rapid intensification to unusually warm Caribbean sea surface temperatures, about 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, and warn such intense storms are consistent with a warming world.
18:33, 06.11.2025Environment
Climate change amplified Hurricane Melissa’s strength, analysis shows
A rapid analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) finds that human-caused warming measurably intensified Hurricane Melissa, increasing the storm's peak winds and rainfall while making the warm, humid conditions that fueled it far more likely.
Melissa — one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes to strike this season — battered Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, killing dozens and causing widespread damage. The storm ripped roofs from homes, damaged hospitals, blocked roads with landslides and ruined crop fields.
WWA's rapid attribution study concluded that climate change raised Melissa's maximum wind speeds by about 7% and made rainfall roughly 16% heavier. The analysis also found that the unusually warm, humid environment in which Melissa intensified was about six times more likely because of human-caused climate change compared with a pre-industrial climate. Ocean temperatures along Melissa’s track in the Caribbean were roughly 1.4°C (2.5°F) warmer than pre-industrial levels.
“Warmer ocean temperatures are effectively the engine that drives a hurricane … the warmer the ocean temperatures, the greater the wind speed a hurricane can have,” said Theodore Keeping, a climate scientist at WWA and a contributor to the analysis.
Melissa was the fourth Atlantic storm this year to undergo rapid intensification — defined as an increase in maximum sustained winds of at least 30 knots (about 35 mph or 56 kph) within 24 hours. Keeping noted that, in a pre-industrial climate, a storm like Melissa would likely have had peak winds about 10 mph (16 kph) lower, which research links to substantially lower economic losses.
Scientists attribute the trend toward faster strengthening and heavier rainfall in Atlantic hurricanes to human-driven increases in greenhouse gases. Higher concentrations of gases such as carbon dioxide warm the oceans and allow the atmosphere to hold more water vapor, supplying storms with more energy and moisture.
“It’s like basically taking a sponge and wringing it out, and climate change is making that sponge even larger,” said Brian Tang, professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, who was not involved in the WWA study.
Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University not involved in the research, said the rapid analysis aligns with existing scientific expectations for how warming affects Atlantic tropical storms. He added that rapid attribution studies provide a valuable early perspective on climate influences before more detailed, time-intensive analyses are completed.
Among the most alarming details in the report was Melissa’s peak sustained winds of 185 mph (298 kph), a level of intensity that is rare and, if indicative of a broader trend, concerning for the future of coastal vulnerability and disaster impacts.
About rapid attribution: Rapid attribution studies compare observed events with modelled counterfactuals of a world without human-caused warming to estimate how climate change altered the odds and characteristics of extreme weather. They are intentionally quick-turnaround analyses, published days to weeks after an event to inform public understanding and response.
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