Iraq Election on Nov 11: Iran’s Bid to Preserve Regional Influence

Iraq election on November 11: what’s at stake

Iraq will hold parliamentary elections on November 11, a vote Tehran is watching closely as it seeks to preserve influence over its western neighbour after setbacks across the region. Iran-backed groups — including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Huthis — have suffered significant losses over the past two years, and Iran itself endured a heavy Israeli bombing campaign in June. The loss of allies in Syria has further constrained Tehran's regional leverage.

Iran’s strategy in Baghdad

Since the 2003 US-led invasion, Iraq has been a central pillar of Iran's regional influence. Tehran advances its interests in Baghdad primarily through Shiite political parties that play decisive roles in forming governments, and through allied armed factions. "Tehran retains its influence as long as its allies hold decision-making power," political analyst Ihsan al-Shammari told AFP.

Domestic dynamics and the Sadr boycott

The 2021 election saw Moqtada Sadr's bloc win the most seats before withdrawing from parliament; today the legislature is dominated by the Coordination Framework, an Iran-aligned coalition that brought Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to power. This election, Sadr has urged a boycott, calling the poll "flawed" and dominated by sectarian and partisan interests — a move that could depress turnout and reshape post-election bargaining.

"Iran is no longer in a position to impose its conditions. But that does not mean it will not try to exert influence," said Munqith Dagher, director of the IIACSS think tank.

Voter turnout and institutional stakes

More than 21 million Iraqis are eligible to elect 329 lawmakers. Chatham House and other analysts warn turnout could fall to its lowest level since 2003 as many citizens view elections as largely symbolic. The parliament chosen on Nov. 11 will set the stage for naming a largely ceremonial president and negotiating the next prime minister — by convention a Shiite — while the presidency typically goes to a Kurd and the speaker to a Sunni.

International influence — the United States

The United States is also actively engaged. Washington has sanctioned Iraqis accused of helping Tehran evade sanctions and has bolstered economic ties through contracts in oil, technology and healthcare. The US maintains roughly 2,500 troops in Iraq and about 900 in Syria as part of the international coalition against the Islamic State. "There is no place for armed groups operating outside the authority of the state," Mark Savaya, the US special envoy to Iraq, said recently.

Other key facts

The election includes the autonomous Kurdistan region, where rivalry between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan remains intense. Iraq's electoral quota guarantees at least 25 percent of parliamentary seats to women and reserves nine seats for minorities. More than 7,700 candidates are contesting nationwide in a country of roughly 46 million people, and nearly one-third of the candidates are women.

What to watch: turnout levels, the impact of Sadr’s boycott, how US-Iran competition plays out in post-election coalition-building, and whether newly elected lawmakers can form a government that reduces external interference while addressing Iraqis' domestic priorities.